Quote:
Originally Posted by marc26
although they did have the mav's # this season
they wont win the series
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That's easy to say, because how can one of the best teams the league has seen in years(67 wins), who were totally dominant since December, lose to an 8 seed, that won only 42 games. You look at the numbers, and say it is not possible. You look at the Dallas line-up of Nowitski, Jason Terry, Josh Howard, and Deavin Harris, plus Dampier and Diop at center, and say, "How could they possibly lose?"
However, the Warriors believe they can win. They believe in themselves, and are playing with an incredible intensity right up and down the line-up, which is deep. Jackson and Davis are playing like they are on a mission.
The Mavs' problem is that they don't really have anyone who can guard Davis effectively. They are going to have to double-team him, and play a collapsing defense, because they don't have one guy who can handle him. That leaves guys open for 3 pointers - Jackson, Richardson, and Ellis. Don't underestimate those 3 guys. If they can hit the threes, the Warriors will win. And if they leave a lane open to the basket, any one of those guys can go in and slam it. Davis, Ellis, Jackson,and Richardson are tremendous athletes, and so is Pietrus, for that matter, although he is not as good at handling the ball.
The bottom line is that when you have that kind of athleticism, plus good shooters, it puts a tremendous pressure on Dallas. Constant pressure. Sunday Dallas cracked under the pressure. Davis and Jackson thrive on pressure, and Ellis seems like he is becoming that kind of player also.
The Warriors weakness is the center position. They have a good center in Biedrins, a good back-up in Foyle, and a forward playing center in Harrington. Nelson prefers to go with Harrington, because then he can have Davis, Ellis, Richardson, and Jackson, his best players on the floor at once. Biedrins is inexperienced, makes mistakes, and takes a scorer off the floor when he is in. Neither Biedrins nor Foyle handle the ball well. Dampier can outmuscle Biedrins, and Foyle can't score. Diop is more athletic than either of them.
It will be interesting to see if Harrington can handle Dampier. He had a hard time with Diop. Also, with Harrington at center, Jackson and Pietrus had to guard Nowitski. Jackson gives up 4 inches, and Pietrus gives up 6, although he is a tenacious defender.
For Dallas to win then, they have to slow down the action, and play the half-court game, so they can dominate in the paint with their 7 footers, Nowitski, Dampier, and Diop. Personally, Dampier has never impressed me. But Nowitski is a great player, and I have been impressed with Diop's athleticism, and hustle.
Avery Johnson tried to match up with Nelson's smaller, more athletic line-up, and found out that they couldn't win that game. It's his move. If he goes to the big line, which he probably will, then it is up to Nelson to figure out how to offset the Dallas height advantage. I don't know how Nelson will do it, but I think the old master has a few tricks up his sleeve that Johnson hasn't seen yet. If anyone can figure a way to defend against them, it's Nelson. He knows Nowitski better than anyone.
But, in the end, I think it will come down to the two great players on these teams. Dirk Nowitski and Baron Davis. In game one, Davis had 33 points. He single-handedly kept his team in the game in the 3rd quarter, when Dallas had the lead and looked like they would pull away. And when the Warriors took the lead in the 4th, Davis buried the Mavs. Nowitski was a non-factor in the 4th quarter and had a poor game overall.
My prediction is that the play of Davis will determine the outcome. He is the guy who has to break down the Dallas defense. If Dallas can not stop him, the Warriors will win. Davis finally is healthy, and he has the kind of fired-up, hustling, never-say-die team behind him that he wants, and the kind of coach that he has always wanted, calling the shots. When the chips are down, he will call the Baron's number, time and again. It will be Davis, not Nowitski, who will determine the outcome, win or lose, IMHO.
I am going to go way out on a limb here - Warriors in six!!!!!!!
