[LivinLOS]

Investing in the 3rd world is much more of a roller coaster.. It may rush up (as its done here during the last prosperous and stable decade) it may crash down (as it did in Bali where 1mil USD villas became 250k in a year or two, or Burma, or any one of many countries that are developing). Tho it is the nightmare scenario, what do you imagine property values would be if one or two explosions happened in the nightlife zone ?? The market would be toast for 5 years.

Right now there are a huge amount of farangs that are well out of pocket on property as it simply will not budge, they just wont admit it or believe it.. I posted recently of a huge mansion place (8 - 10 mil plus last year surely) for 4 mil.. Another very luxury 160 sqm 3 bed with pool in Chalong last year asking 10mil this year asking 4mil. One in Rawai that was asking 13m now asking 7ish. For those with hard cash and an appetite for extreme risk theres some real bargains appearing as some people simply 'must sell' !

Since the FBA and FBA2, the land controls, the coup, etc.. Nearly nothing is being sold. I know land agents that would sell a piece every week or two that have sold 5 small things this year !! Its easy to say what risk is there for a Thai ? but this market was driven by farang buyers not Thai buyers, now the farang buyers have left the market theres not much sales action at all !! And any that there is is not in the high end homes which would be the average farang purchase.

Now of course we may get a nice smooth election, they may be farang friendly, and overseas investment orientated (I doubt it). Global disposable income may rise more and everything may be boom again.. But theres also real risk it wont be.

Also it has to be said (and this is my personal view which many would dissagree with) that Phuket has been a direct benefactor of a global boom, the world has had a prosperous 15 years, western house prices have boomed, people felt richer. When this happens people go on holiday more, they spend more, they buy second holiday homes around the world and think of luxuries. IMO that global boom is coming to a rapid end, house prices are breaking down in markets all over the globe, the dollar is tanking and interest rates may have to spike, foreclosures are already spiking, bad credit is endemic in some markets, those buy to let people are getting squeezed out (my mother just got an eviction notice due to this !! Her landlord is going to lose the house and after >5 years will be lucky to make anything on thier gamble / investment). Now thats just my opinion on what is at least a very real possibility for the next 5 - 10 year cycle. If thats the case I dont see the same flood of discretionary spending coming into Phuket that it has before, both into the tourism related market (bars and short termers) or the early retirees, the second home folks, the richer long stay guys.

Also dont get too carried away by the fact that 'its only 50k GBP'.. Theres loads of nice parts of the world where prices are low.. Many with better legal protections and real economy health than here too.. Bali is much cheaper than here (worse legal), my brother rents his 2 bed 2 story home on a secure development with communal pool for 2000 USD a year, he could buy it for 28k IIRC. Brazil is cheap (better legal protection, immigration and naturalization options), Venezuela, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Honduras, Vietnam, Cambo, etc etc all have options, some may have worse on the street security but many offer better legal protections to ownership and most are more open in thier ability for new arrivals to own things 100%, many of the older guys dont really worry about the threat level out at 3am on the wh0rehouse streets as thats not how they want to retire...

Phuket is great, I love living here, but I dont regret for one second keeping my investments outside of Thailand and renting, my money is safe, I can sell or trade out of any position in a phone call, I have made better returns (OK I admit I have been lucky and done a lot better than average with my trades) on my assets that I would have by buying, my rent is <3% of the properties value, I can literally pack a bag and leave any time I want, with no financial penalty.

I wish anyone puchasing here the best of luck, I dont wish for problems or other dumb things, but I see fixed illiquid investment in the 3rd world to be a much less attractive investment than other options, Phuket doesnt appear 3rd world, and I think that confuses many people, and gives an impression of stability that is based on the recent decade and not reality. History says (I cant remember exactly) 25 ish coups in 80 years, 1993 saw the army shooting 100's of students in Tammarasat university, we have a non elected government, this isnt far past history, this is last 15 years stuff.