Thailand Expats

midnightsun1 · #1 26-01-2007, 09:59

The thai baht keeps gaining.

How is this?

Thailand has no real government. A coup happen a few months back. no western governments do not approve of coups.

Thailand's "so called government" has made decisions that makes the financial world and investors shaking their heads.

How and why is the baht so strong?

MrDK · #2 26-01-2007, 10:04

Might want to view thread: TBT Getting Stronger

LivinLOS · #3 26-01-2007, 10:11

Thb isnt getting much stronger (a little but well within bound) but the USD is falling hard..

Look at THB / EUR pairs or THB / GBP.. Thats minor..

Problem for USD earners no doubt. But its obvious the USD is going to the crapper.. If you have USD or USD based assets time to be afraid.

Also the THB is being used a a China proxy.. Possibly also the currency controls were the blood in the water for the speculators and the miss handling by the BoT looked amateurish enough that they think they can beat the bank.. Once speculators attack theres so much money in hedges etc its hard for a country like Thailand to defend against raids like that.

midnightsun1 · #4 26-01-2007, 10:31

What do u suggest?

The investments I have. Have done very well this year.

But this baht is killing me on the exchange. Especially living here and not being on a tourist holiday.

LivinLOS · #5 26-01-2007, 10:47

As I have posted.. I am a big real money fan.. Gold and a full spread of gold mining (major / jnr / exploration) exposure.. Silver has more upside potential fast as its a smaller market but its a fair bit more volatile..

Other than that uranium is a dunk and I like zinc also..

ATMwalking · #6 26-01-2007, 12:46

I asked the same question on the other thread as well. Same problem as midnightsun1.

So you are suggesting get out of currency and hold it in precious metals. Then when you need some money here, sell it. Is that it?

LivinLOS · #7 26-01-2007, 13:38

I assume that many here are living of assets held outside the country..

So of course you need to have a slush fund.. Your spending money and a fair bit more for emergency sake.. But letting your large assets sit in USD denominated assets be they bonds or even Blue Chip stock is not for me..

I have diversified around precious metals in bullion (paper bullion) and stock forms.. I think gold will hit new highs this year and maybe all time highs this year.. I also think theres scope for enough instability to push gold to historic highs well into the 4 figure per ounce ranges.. If so the assets I have in stocks will leverage this rise. But of course theres trade costs etc and so this is not to be jumping in and out of in short periods.

I tend to believe both real estate and stocks are looking way to lofty and think a hard landing scenario is more likely than is currently considered by the average investor. remember a crash doesnt need to happen for these contrarian positions to pay off merely the chance of it rise or the perception of that to become more common. I see more risk than most.

Of course this is speculation but as someone wiser than me once said your always long something.. Money in the bank (for Americans) is long USD a position I wouldn't be happy with.

ATMwalking · #8 26-01-2007, 14:24

Thanks for the info. I enjoy reading that guys money column in the Gazette. I wish sometimes he made it a little more applicable to living here. It gets a little tricky when you live somewhere when you don't want to hold too much of the local currency. Especially when it is in flux. Good to find a way to try hedge the fluctuations and stabilize the cost of living here. On currency alone it costs 15% more to live here this year than last. Factor in the 5-10% inflation. Not talking major baht in real terms, but still...

LivinLOS · #9 26-01-2007, 14:39

Well I often piont this out to guys who sit with retirement calculators and emphasize that actually making the early retirement leap you need to really have a fair bit of safe margin.

Lets just say for arguments sake that in the last 2 years we have had a 20% USD / THB movement and 10% per annum inflation.. When you look at those compounding in different directions that means within only 24 months a USD spender is getting 55 - 60% of the same purchasing power. Thats in 2 years !!

People tend to forget that Pre 97 the baht was 25 to the USD.. 40 or so to the GBP..

Rex7777 · #10 26-01-2007, 14:41

I was talking to some friend of my father's a few months ago that is worth somewhere between 500 million and a billion dollars. His view of it all is that then best you can do is have a diversified mix of stocks, bonds, real estate, artwork, etc. He didn't seem to think too much of the idea of having 10 percent of one's assets in gold. He did, however, seem to think that, in the long run, all would be well.

Rex

ATMwalking · #11 26-01-2007, 14:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

leap you need to really have a fair bit of safe margin.

Of course. Sage advise. And on a macro-investment level I agree with your take.

But for the little bit that I need in Thailand to have a comfortable lifestyle, is there a clear way to get on the good side of an appreciating baht. You get inflation everywhere so you have to just suck it up. But the strengthening baht is like a mosquito biting at you. Won't kill you but its annoying.

Or is what you are saying, because the Baht is so tied to the USD, overall reduction of USD exposure takes care of the pesky strong Baht problem. Basically the problem is one in the same.

midnightsun1 · #12 26-01-2007, 15:32

ATMwalking,

where are you from? if i may ask.

LivinLOS · #13 26-01-2007, 15:43

I think the baht problem is one that many countries are feeling due to USD over printing.. As the USD is maniplulated down they all try to also push thier own down to keep thier export based economies on par and not lose out to thier neighbours.

So essentially I think that avoiding the USD in particular will limit some of the rising of other currencies and avoiding fiat money systems as much as possible will counter the inflationary aspects of the printing press solutions most of them seeming to be using.

LAGuy1 · #14 30-01-2007, 14:32

Will be staying at Amari Coral Beach...

Have heard the gauntlet of dealing with tailor salespeaople is a pain getting into town....any others similar?

Anything I can say, do, to get them to leave me alone without being offensive?

Would like a simple Thai phrase to let them know..an eqiv to "no thank you" that they respect, would be great. and keep moving.

Thanks,

tc

LivinLOS · #15 30-01-2007, 15:13

I really find to simply ignore them and they are not that much of a problem.. A simple mai ow krap or a shake of the head usually works..

Maybe I just dont look like a good customer or something but I really dont get pestered much..

Dont get into conversation, dont shake hands, dont break stride..