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#1
21-06-2006, 06:33
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To Buy or Not to Buy?
Since all the hubbub about the Fed chairman not being such a pushover and going to jack up rates another quarter in June, with no date for a pause in the tightening clearly indicated in coming months, the market has fallen a bit. Quite a few stocks, especially metals, oil, and foreign markets ETFs, have dropped 20 to 40 per cent from the highs established during the euphoria of the first week in May.
What do you guys think? Time to buy at a discount from recent highs. Or time to stand on the sideline and wait for a clear signal of what the future holds. Figuring DCF and PEG valuations for many stocks seems to indicate that there are a lot of good companies selling well below intrinsic value. So, do you subscribe to the value theory, which would seem to indicate that this is a time to buy? Or do you go with a momentum/technical analysis approach which would seem to indicate waiting for a clear upward shift in the momentum indicators, i.e., a clear breakout?
__________________
LOS is warm, soft, smooth, and brown. 
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#2
21-06-2006, 08:23
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Depends on your tolerance for risk...
I moved a large chunk of change between funds to metals and mining again.. All of the current problems (inflation, deficits, gov overspending and printing money, oil price and energy issues, iran, etc) still look super bullish for that sector.. All of the predictions for recession, spiralling interest rates, inflation (hyper?) crashing dollar, crashing house prices etc are coming exactly as planned. The data is now starting to show many early symptoms of exactly those effects. To me this pullback was a buying opportunity.. That ONLY applies to mining and commodity to me.. I think that common stocks will fall for a long time.. Recession is almost certain will it be a depression etc is the more worrying question.. This book http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/159...52016?n=283155 is pretty scientifically laid out.. The second great depression is its name and I think theres a chance he could be right.. Not certain of course but even a slim chance should be guarded against. The empire of debt is worth a read too.. Of course I am a minority viewpoint.
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Men have only 2 emotional states, hungry and horny.. So ladies, if you see me without an erection, make me a sandwich.
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#3
19-08-2006, 16:16
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Well, finally, a good inflation report card piggy-backed on top of the Fed's pause last week translated into a big week for the markets here, w/ 5 consecutive up days!
 :That is why I am $miling!  Could this be the beginning of something beautiful? 
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LOS is warm, soft, smooth, and brown.
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#5
20-08-2006, 05:39
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Quote:
Seems strange time to be putting money into metals with the major bull market we have had  missed the boat the horse has bolted comes to mind .Someone always has to pay the top thats what makes a market  you know that marc your a trader
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#6
20-08-2006, 13:02
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Quote:
What seems interesting is how do you know about marc that he is a trader when this is your first post? Could it be that you have another name here on the Board? 
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LOS is warm, soft, smooth, and brown.
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#7
20-08-2006, 14:50
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Quote:
In for a quiet week on the data front and while PPI was softer than expected - next months data will include the spike up in energy. More serious though is that the housing data is very soft - we are most likely going into a slowdown (recession??) and late summer rally on relatively weak volume looks a bit shaky technically. Keep a reasonable trailing stop as think the market is heading for a rougher ride in Q4. Payrolls sub 120k (1st Sept) would be a poor signal for me. Like credit markets oevr stocks now - FED has probably finished for now - buy dips on bonds. For info only - Its YOUR risk.
__________________
Its My Life ..........!
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#8
20-08-2006, 15:46
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[quote=JayBee;225803]What seems interesting is how do you know about marc that he is a trader when this is your first post? Could it be that you have another name here on the Board?
[/QUOTIf you look on profile it says occupation .I have read this board for years i lived in Phuket 2001 till 2004 have made 4 trips back to Thailand this year only 1 to Phuket the others Bkk/Hua Hin and Bkk/Samui the board can be helpfull at times .
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#9
20-08-2006, 17:33
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[quote=lovebangkok;225821]
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555555555 Great reply and welcome to the board I know that you are not a newbie too LOS but how about posting something in the newbies section about your experiences of living in LOS? Do you think things are changing there etc. Cheers
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#10
20-08-2006, 19:57
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[quote=lovebangkok;225821]
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Well, then!! Welcome to the Board. It's always good to have an old Thai hand on board! Sorry for being a suspicious sort.  But there are certain guys who keep coming back under different names! Again, Wel-***! You hansum man!! 
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LOS is warm, soft, smooth, and brown.
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#11
20-08-2006, 20:16
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Quote:
Thanks for the advice, K2. You seem to be an astute observer/analyst of the the marketplace. I move my stops up at least once a week now, when warranted, if not more often. I've made the mistake of holding on too long too many times in the past. Think I have finally learned my lesson. As a past teacher once told me: "Never be afraid to take a profit!" And it goes without saying, that the cardinal rule of investing is to always cut one's losses unless you are fairly certain the stock has bottomed. Even then, it's best to hedge your bet against the possibility of an error in judgement. You never want to get caught on a slippery slope. 
__________________
LOS is warm, soft, smooth, and brown.
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#12
21-08-2006, 07:30
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[quote=JayBee;225877]
Quote:
Thanx for the welcome to the board . You are right i have posted on the board 4 post acct name breezer i lost the password but that is it TOTAL 4 post . Love reading the board i check in everyday great threads enjoy reading the goings on in Phuket does make me smile when someone does something realllly stupid but i can relate to it because i did it myself i have the tee shirt  beleive me if i could turn the clock back i would not change a thing
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#13
06-10-2006, 15:43
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OK, who answered my question on 6/24 with a resounding "BUY! BUY NOW!"
 Then you are the winner, and get a free beer when I see you in MTB next time, since the correct answer was "BUY!" The market(DJIA) has moved up approx. 900 pts, since then, hitting record highs, along with the S & P, and the European market, as well.Next question? Where do we go from here?  Up or down?
__________________
LOS is warm, soft, smooth, and brown.
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