THB getting stronger..

[slimbag]

Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's central bank said it
allowed the baht to rise to its strongest level since 1997
because recent measures to curb speculation in the currency have
reduced its supply among overseas investors.
The Bank of Thailand didn't ``intervene'' to stem the baht's
rise, said Governor Tarisa Watanagase to reporters in Bangkok
today.
The currency rose to as strong as 33.91 per dollar as of
3:31 p.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg,


are we going back to 25 baht to the $ .. ?

[Nautilus]

Yeah the Baht is getting stronger.

From XE.com - The World's Favorite Currency and Foreign Exchange Site, 10.00 MYR = 97.3124 THB

Ouch ! ! ! !

[LivinLOS]

USD falling in combo with THB being a China proxy.. But 33 is a shocker..

40 - 33.. Getting close to a fairly recent 20% fall.. Factor in 10% real world inflation and USD's aint going to go as far out here as they used to..

All those USD based guys sitting with retirement calculators take note.

[ATMwalking]

You want to see a grown man cry? I hope this stops soon.

[Denver]

.....................Noted

I've a start up topless car cleaning service on the main road! Just me at the moment though................Business seems slow!

[faultytowers]

Originally Posted by Denver

.....................Noted

I've a start up topless car cleaning service on the main road! Just me at the moment though................Business seems slow!

Don't topless cars get wet when it rains.

[Denver]

Originally Posted by faultytowers

Don't topless cars get wet when it rains.

They do now.............and no payment in Dollars! Extras are available on request!

I reckon the Dollar will take an upturn once everything is sorted out in Iraq.............555555555555555555555555555555555 55555555555!!! Sorry!

[LivinLOS]

Originally Posted by ATMwalking

You want to see a grown man cry? I hope this stops soon.

I have said my piece so many times before I am sure everyones sick of it..

But my opinion of deficit spending, off balance sheet spending, Fed reserve inflating the dollar away.. The dollar has one long term direction..

In every case of a currency not back by gold it has failed.. We came off the gold standard in 73 (??) its only a collective faith that holds the whole house of cards up and it has lost mine..

At least about the only man left in congress that understands the constiution and these hard money issues sounds like he may actually run.. Ron Paul would have my vote.

[Sirgezza]

Originally Posted by Denver

.....................Noted

I've a start up topless car cleaning service on the main road! Just me at the moment though................Business seems slow!

Fat bloke from Rochdale with no shirt on cleaning cars? Business must be dead, not just slow

[Sirgezza]

Baht against the pound is still less than 70, same as when I arrived 4 weeks ago. In that time, interest rates in UK have risen (a surprise) and rates in LOS have fallen, with a further cut on the cards. I would be expecting more than 70 baht to the pound after these announcements.

Pound has gained against the dollar.

[TanMan]

We've got a war going on.... US printing money to fund it in the form of bonds helping the US economy and at the same time hurting it in the long term... All a matter of supply and demand I suppose..

[jimholio]

China, USA.. hmmpff..

So whats gonna happend when or if China starts selling their $? I mean with the THB. Not sure how Chinas and Thailands economy is linked, but the USA/China link is quite obvious and so is the link between USA/Thailand.

[LivinLOS]

China making a actual dollar dumping policy wouldn't be in thier interests (yet) but they could easily start a run on the dollar and a dollar collapse.. That in turn would lead to wiemar like hyperinflation and a global financial crisis.

Every time fiat currency has been tried in the history of civilization it has ended in hyper inflation as governments printed it to nothing.. Every time !!! People dont seem to recognize that fact. The current experiment with non backed by gold currency is only 35 something years old.. Then look at the size of the derivitive markets money chasing money..

Is a complete major event likely.. I dont think its probable but its getting lots and lots more possible.

[K2]

Central Banks that want to devalue their currency ALWAYS win - I must admit the movement in THB is hard to fathom out given all that the BoT and Ministry of Finance have done in the past 3 months but I hold out that eventually reality will prevail and the THB will weaken.

GBP and EUR slipping a bit now - buy JPY.

[LivinLOS]

They could try by using the Easy Al or helicopter Bens technique of just flooding the money supply.. That would cause fairly rampant inflation tho in a market like the THB which is limited.

[Mav]

Baht strong against Aussie Dollar today......strongest l've seen in my time.

[LivinLOS]

Xe is stating a 34.005 so they have obviously set a 34 line in the sand.. they dont have reserves to fight speuclators in the short term tho IMO.. But as said they can print the currency away.. Expect even more rampant inflation in that case.

A good point from Chuck at KitcoCasey

Kitco Casey - Gold, Silver and Natural Resource Stock Quotes, Share Research and Analysis

And what's going on with Thai baht? The currency moved stronger vs. the dollar by one whole baht overnight, to the highest level vs. the dollar since 1997! Basically, the Thai Gov't is finding out that their "currency controls" that they placed on the baht a month ago has caused a currency shortage, and when you're short something, it costs more to buy it, right? You bet your sweet bippie that's right!

Also they introduced currency controls and then realized Thai companies could borrow and finance.. DOH SLAP !!! Another quickly papered over 'exemption' to the badly thought out and implemented rules.. Thailand has become a bit of a whipping boy in the newsletters for miss management since the junta came in.

[ATMwalking]

OK. So assuming you hold money offshore in some harder currency, but most of your expenses and spending will be in Thai Baht. What is the best real currency to hold so the raising baht doesn't hit you too hard? Euros?

[Nanook]

Originally Posted by ATMwalking

OK. So assuming you hold money offshore in some harder currency, but most of your expenses and spending will be in Thai Baht. What is the best real currency to hold so the raising baht doesn't hit you too hard? Euros?

For the Euro the rate has been around 46-47 baht during the last few months. When I checked yesterday, it was about 44.50 baht.
Hence, I think also the Euro is feelling the baht is getting stronger.

[slimbag]

bht getting weaker today...

interesting article on thai economic outlook for those interested:

Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand's central bank cut
Southeast Asia's second-largest economy's growth forecast for
this year as spending, investment and exports slow.
The economy may expand between 4 percent and 5 percent,
Bank of Thailand Assistant Governor Suchada Kirakul told
reporters at a briefing in Bangkok today. That's lower than the
4.5 percent to 5.5 percent range the bank predicted in October.
``There will be a protracted slowdown,'' said Tim Condon,
an economist at ING Bank NV in Singapore. ``The confidence of
foreigner investors and Thai consumers has been missing and it
doesn't look like it's going to reappear any time soon.''
The Bank of Thailand triggered a slump in local stocks,
bonds and the currency in December when it imposed capital
controls, then reversed some of the measures a day later. The
bank last week cut its key interest rate for the first time in
more than three years to spur the economy after confidence was
shaken by new investment rules and bombings in Bangkok.
The economy grew about 5.1 percent in 2006, the central
bank said, from 4.5 percent a year earlier.
``The risk of slowing economic growth is greater than
inflationary pressure,'' Suchada said. ``Domestic consumption
and investments have been slowing more than we expected. Slowing
U.S. growth will curb exports.''
The Bank of Thailand cut its prediction of export growth
this year to between 7.5 percent and 10.5 percent, slowing from
last year's 17 percent expansion.

Exports

Global economic growth will cool to 3.2 percent this year
from an estimated 3.8 percent in 2006, according to a United
Nations report this month that cited the U.S. housing market
slump as the biggest drag on expansion. The U.S. is Thailand's
largest export market.
Exports, which account for about 60 percent of Thailand's
economy, are also being curbed as the stronger currency makes it
harder for textiles, jewelry and some other of the nation's
products to compete with cheaper rivals. The baht rose 16
percent against the dollar last year, the best performer among
15 Asia-Pacific currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
``There's a greater risk to growth because of increased
political and policy uncertainty,'' said Usara Wilaipich, an
economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Bangkok. ``Cooling
global demand could slow export growth this year, so the
economic performance will rely on government spending.''

Confidence

The country's economy expanded 4.7 percent in the third
quarter, the slowest pace in three, as consumers and companies
spent less following a political stalemate that led to a
September military coup.
Thailand's consumer confidence fell for a second month in
December after the nation's key stock index slid the most in 16
years. Confidence dropped to a five-month low in a special
January survey after Dec. 31 bombs in Bangkok.
Government and private spending in 2007 may expand between
3.5 percent and 4.5 percent, the central bank forecast. That
compares with an October prediction of 4 percent to 5 percent.
``The bomb blasts have significantly affected confidence of
consumers and businessmen,'' said Isara Ordeedolchest, an
economist at Tisco Securities in Bangkok. ``There is also rising
concern whether government spending will be fast enough because
most state agencies are quite inactive.''

Investment

Government and private investment may increase between 6
percent and 7 percent, the Bank of Thailand predicted today,
less than its October estimate of a rise of as much as 9 percent.
Thailand's military-installed government plans to make up
for slower shipments abroad by lifting spending on public
transport, irrigation and roads to 1.57 trillion baht ($43.7
billion) this year from 1.39 trillion baht in 2006.
``I'm confident the economy will keep growing and will see
good moments,'' said Petri Deryng, who manages $120 million
including Thai stocks at Helsinki-based PYN Fund Management Ltd.
``But of course, now it's difficult to say when you expect
something.''
The current account may have an excess of between $2.5
billion to $4.5 billion this year, the central bank forecast.
That compares with an October estimate of a deficit of as much
as $6 billion.
Thailand's trade surplus in December narrowed to $912
million from a record $1.74 billion excess in November as the
baht's strength slowed export growth, the commerce ministry said
on Jan. 22. Exports last month rose 16.5 percent from a year
earlier to $10.95 billion, a six-month low.

Inflation

The central bank today lowered its prediction for inflation
this year to between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent, from an
October estimate of between 1.5 percent and 3 percent. Inflation
averaged 4.7 percent in 2006. Core inflation in 2007 was
forecast to be between 1 percent and 2 percent. That's less than
the 1.5 percent to 2.5 percent estimated in October.
Thailand's investment climate is worsening amid political
instability, foreign ownership probes and recent capital control
policies, Standard & Poor's said in a Jan. 7 report. Overseas
investors have been ``unsettled'' by setbacks including the Sept.
19 military coup and an investigation into the takeover of Shin
Corp., led by Singapore's Temasek Holdings Pte, the report said.
Central bank penalties imposed on Dec. 18 on foreign
investments of less than a year triggered a 15 percent slide in
the Thai stock market, prompting the rule to be abandoned for
equity funds a day later. The controls remain for bonds, real-
estate mutual funds and foreign-currency borrowings.

Restrictions

Thailand's Cabinet on Jan. 9 approved revisions to foreign
ownership laws, placing new restrictions on overseas investments
in companies and the use of local nominees to circumvent limits.
It set deadlines of between one and two years for stakes to be
pared to less than 50 percent.
Bomb blasts in Bangkok on New Year's eve killed three
people and wounded 42, including nine foreigners. Prime Minister
Surayud Chulanont on Jan. 1 blamed the attacks on ``people who
lost their political power'' following the military coup.
Surayud was installed as prime minister after the armed forces
toppled former premier Thaksin Shinawatra's government.

[Denver]

I've cut back to 3 slices of bread and a half litre of water a day now until the Dollar gets its act together.

Beats jogging!

[K2]

The BoT have $62 billion in FX reserves - and they have the option to draw on the ASEAN exchange stabilisation fund. Plenty of ammo for a fight.

Economic and Financial Data for Thailand

Keep cutting interest rates will work (eventually) - offshore THB O/N trading at 23% - its beginning to look ugly.

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

Xe is stating a 34.005 so they have obviously set a 34 line in the sand.. they dont have reserves to fight speuclators in the short term tho IMO..