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#1
06-02-2007, 13:08
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3 trillion... gulp !!!
I am just reading that Bush's spending plan sent to congress is a 3 trillion bill.. Remember thats the plan before any budget over runs !!
2006 numbers show a 9 trillion federal debt based on a 13 trillion GDP.. Dont forget the 9 trillion morgate debt or the 9 trillion corp debt !!! Do those numbers not make anyone else want to build a bunker and buy automatic weapons ??
__________________
Men have only 2 emotional states, hungry and horny.. So ladies, if you see me without an erection, make me a sandwich. 
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#2
06-02-2007, 13:14
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Yikes - the curve getting more exponential ... I posted this link before and it needs updating to include Bush II latest spending spree...
United Stated National Debt Will have to hope that the Japanese and Chinese appitite for US debt continue and that perhaps India and Russia can be tempted to join the party! Additionally saw this on growth in private equity takeovers - nasty trend - Gecko is Back! Investing | Investing commentary | Investing tips | Nick Louth - MSN Money UK - The great private equity threat
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Its My Life ..........!
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#3
06-02-2007, 13:24
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Good graph.. Didnt spot that before..
Had read how Reagan was the start of the spending years and you can see how bush the elder also kept the foot hard on the gas... The clinton years managed to start to change the trend but Bush part deux really has taken the ball and run with it.. Now personally I just cant see many good options how this can pan out any other way than a really nasty shitstorm involving dollar collapse, massive inflation, double digit interest rates, the knock on housing collapse, and quite possibly a change in the global balances of power.. I know I have done my doom and gloom the sky is falling posts before.. But this just looks to me like the writing is on the wall.. Just take a second to think what the working non government job population of the USA is (get rid of all the young, the old, those working for direct government payrolls) ?? Thats the population that has to pay taxes to pay this years 3 trillion bill.. Unless my maths is out thats about 3300 USD per man woman and child in the states let alone the non government working earners.
__________________
Men have only 2 emotional states, hungry and horny.. So ladies, if you see me without an erection, make me a sandwich.
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#4
06-02-2007, 13:28
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Ohh and dont get me started on the liquidity and hedge fund / private equity topic.. Theres another time bomb with its fuse in the firework box..
__________________
Men have only 2 emotional states, hungry and horny.. So ladies, if you see me without an erection, make me a sandwich.
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#5
07-02-2007, 01:40
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It may be LL, but to THIS man on the street, all is still rolling along fine here. Gas is still around 2-bucks a gallon, I can easily afford to fill up my 5.9L Dodge truck and go anywhere, (ain't no substitute for cubic inches  ) and my house value has almost doubled in 5 years. A new Goldwing motorcycle can be had for under $15K. A 12-pack of imported-from-Canada, Fosters bottles is $8.99. I can still buy a double cheese burger and fries for $1.98 and I only have to pay for the first cup of coffee, then refills are free, even in McDonalds. I really can't see it crashing around me in any great rush. The chances of the s..t hitting the fan, to my mind, is quite low as like it or not, we are still the greatest Capitalist society in the world. Given money being the base of our continued survival, I seriously doubt if anything much will befall us poor old beleaguered Yankee folk.  Dave
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#6
07-02-2007, 01:49
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Er, pardon me K2, it makes a pretty picture, but unless I am reading it wrong, doesn't this suggest that a 1938-Dollar equals a 2006-Dollar? Also the "trend" to 2010 cannot be based on any fact just a malevolent prank to try and bolster a poor point. Just my 2c worth on lies, lies and damned statistics. Dave
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#7
07-02-2007, 04:06
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I have to agree Dave, but are we ever going to catch hell for our opinions. 55555 It seems to be in vogue now to hate all things Bush related. Got a flat tire? Blame Bush. The US economy is pretty strong. Some call it the Goldilocks economy. Bush has recently announced that we can wipe out the deficit entirely in 5 years. Lies? Maybe....let's look at history. The last similar announcement he made was on Tuesday July 15, 2003 Headline.......
"Bush Promises to Cut U.S. Deficit in Half by 2006 The White House acknowledged today that the federal budget deficit would reach a record $455 billion this fiscal year due mainly to the heavy costs from the war in Iraq, and then climb $20 billion higher in 2004. But the good news, according to this CNN Money story, is that President Bush promised to but the deficit in half by 2006. But the bad news is, he didn’t say how." Well, it turns out he did it in half the time. Headline from Oct 9 2006 1:03AM...... "Federal Deficit Cut In Half Three Years Earlier Than Expected A huge point has been virtually if not totally ignored since the announcement on Friday that the reported federal deficit for the fiscal year that ended a week ago was $250 billion � The Bush Administration has done what it said it would do about the deficit three years ago, and has done it a full three years early, i.e., in half the time predicted. This continues what has been a very difficult past few years have been for those who deride supply-side economics. If Washington, with a little help from the states, lets the supply-side engine continue to chug along for next several years, the results could be so positively stunning that it would become impossible for supply-side detractors in touch with any part of the real world to hang on to the comfort of their static-analysis fantasyland." More on statistics, the funny thing about them is you can skew them to come out any way you want them. Especially projected ones. We are on track. I think his economic policy makes more sense than the current Thai government policy.
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My Thai girl smokes the competition,......... and now it hurts when I pee. 
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#8
07-02-2007, 04:40
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Yup, BD got that one right, but hey I love a good fight, specially when I am on the right side. Quote:
Yup again, but the Henny Penny types read those things with invisible ink glasses. They only see and remember what they want. What was that old Journalist's saw? "Never spoil a good story with facts." 555555555 As to non-USA-living commentators, I suspect it is a wish to see us fail. As my dear old Mom used to say "wish in one hand and spit in the other and see which one gets full first." Bring it on guys... WooHoooo.Dave
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#9
07-02-2007, 07:05
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P.s.
Hey guys,
Before anyone gets their shirts in a knot, the "non-USA-living" issue was NOT directed at anyone on this board, it was meant as a statement of fact. People NOT living here can only know as much as the Media tells them and all too often, this is a very biased view. Only by living on the ground can one really see what changes are or are not happening or trending. Thought I'd better clear that up before a flame war erupts. Dave
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#10
07-02-2007, 08:05
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Would certainly accept that BD and DR I'm not looking at USA (or Bush come that) bashing - it is very useful to hear the view from inside the US and its been 10 years since I was last over. DR how do you come to conclusion that at 1938 US$ = 2006 US$?? When I last posted that article I did make a comment that it was written with a right-wing bias that I did not subscribe to - just the deficit charts were best I could find as I cant use Bloomberg Professional any longer  .Things do 'look' very rosy - economically in the US and really worldwide - there is very little risk built in. On BBerg TV yesterday was watching how Vietnam had rallied 40% this year already! There is a LOT of welth sloshing around out there looking for a return and appitite for every riskier investments has grown a lot. (LTCM was a long time ago now). I personally think risk (as represented by VIX and junk bond swap curve over treasuries) is undervalued and that we are close to a major cyclical peak. This is a natural process and not a catylism for the US or worldwide.
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Its My Life ..........!
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#11
07-02-2007, 09:22
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$2.9trillon, gulp
Well, good 'old Dubya thinks he has sorted his math for a balanced budget (albeit 3 yrs after he had left office) but I wouldn'd bet on it - the Democrats have already highlighted some 'creative' accountancy and I'm sure there's more to come. Cutting heathcare and social bubgets to fund expenditure in Iraq and Afganistan (and don't forget the tax cuts which he wants to perpetuate) ain't going to be to their likin' (don't forget the Democrats have both Houses now).
Excitin' times!
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#12
07-02-2007, 21:20
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this is kinda what LIL was getting at that people are just rolling along and worrying about their everyday costs and not taking a macro view of things joe average is only concerned with his everyday life by the way, read some of LIL's other post in the money and investing section and you will see that is very well informed
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#13
07-02-2007, 22:39
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I don't, your chart DOES. Hmmmm, the chart shows for example, 1944 as let's say $10M. The average wage in 1944 was probably around $20/week. It is $6,000,000,000,000 for 2002 where the average wage was about $600/week. Doesn't that make THE CHART dollars out of whack by to 600:20. Either adjust UP the 1944 DOLLAR figure relative to the average wage (or whatever) or adjust the 2002 DOLLAR DOWN. That chart is just a nonsense like that. You can't just use dollars-then and dollars-now unless you really want to skew the appearance of the graph. There have been dozens (hundreds??) of doom and gloomers over the past 200 years but still we prevail. Maybe I am being naive but I have been this naive for the past 40 years and we are still doing well. Anyone one want to lay down some real money, lets say $50K (held in Escrow) that we will be doomed in 5 years?? Nah, thought not. Enuff from me on this. Dave
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#14
07-02-2007, 22:41
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Er, pardon me also, but in the interests of accuracy, you can't get "more exponential" the data trend is either "exponential" or not. Dave
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#15
07-02-2007, 23:38
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Ok, I’m not a “money man”, but I have done some technical charting for brokers from time to time. I do not think the “level” is the important information portrayed in the chart, but rather the rate of increase from year to year. Even if the value of the dollar also grew during Clinton’s reign, he managed to stabilize the growth of the debt. That said, yes, the chart itself is somewhat misleading in that it seems to show that the debt grew much faster during the combined Republican admins, whereas the “real” numbers are an average of 8.3% per year for Democrats and 9.3% per year for republicans. Quote:
Well, I think you have “true” exponential growth (as used in math), but it’s also a term that can be used nontechnical: “The phrase exponential growth is often used in nontechnical contexts to mean merely surprisingly fast growth. In a strictly mathematical sense, though, exponential growth has a precise meaning.” In the former sense, you can have shades of exponential growth (i.e. more or less exponential growth).
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#16
07-02-2007, 23:39
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i think you are taking too much offense this isnt the general section this is the money and investing section people will always have different views i say sell GOOG, you may say buy GOOG in this section, no one is taking personal shots
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#17
08-02-2007, 02:48
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For the last 18-24 months I have been going on about how ridiculously low risk premiums in the financial markets are. Every time I start on the topic they just moved lower once more… I just don’t buy into the opinion that the global situation has changed and a crash is no longer possible. LTCM alone managed to crash the market in 1998; today there are thousands of hedge funds jumping at every opportunity to make a few bps to outshine the benchmark. Trades get bigger and bigger, they are more sophisticated than ever and turnaround time shorter and shorter. Market liquidity never seems to be an issue and getting out of a trade is too easy. Well, if I learned one thing over the years, the exit door always looks big enough until everybody running for it at the same time. Another phenomenon I have noticed recently is the fact that people become more and more generous with their stop losses and while the trades/traders became more sophisticated they also seem to be a lot less market savvy. I can only wonder what will happen when things start to get in motion. Taking stops too late and too furious will only accelerate a storm to the exit door. Will I make money from my view? I doubt it, the way things are going I will probably have thrown in the towel by the time the move occurs...
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#18
08-02-2007, 02:59
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My two cents
I don't think Dave was taking a too personal shot.
No matter what we as a country do wrong in our spending, consuming and such. (which deep down LIL is right) We have our tenticles out and can manipulate in many ways., (speaking as an American). If we can't have it or bargain for it, we'll start a war for it and history has proven a dominating military can cut you alot of slack. If this standard of spending keeps up for the next 7 years we will see something we have never seen before. But is it in our creditors favor to call in the chips , he'll no they will keep doing what they do, just like selling crack to a junkie.
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"Start every day off with a smile and get it over with" W.C. Fields
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#19
08-02-2007, 03:52
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Hmm - 10 billion $ per month in Iraq and Afghanistan. With a total cost so far of close to 500 billion $ - That would feed alot of hungry people in Africa.
Whats next project, Iran - 20 billion $ per month? Hope the lunatic is removed soon, before he gets too close to the big red launch button.
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Last edited by jimholio : 08-02-2007 at 03:56.
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#20
08-02-2007, 04:02
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Hi Marc, Sorry was not taking a personal shot at all. Having responded your question on 1938 = 2006 dollars, I thought I would slip in the Exponential thing too. Unlike Sundance, I cannot use Exponential in any other way than the Math meaning. If sub-class Journalists use it in a descriptive sense then that is their issue. They are usually incorrect in lot of other stuff too. OK, so that's not hitting on you too Sundance, I cannot see the sense in using Exponential in anything other than it's Math rule. Sorry if I offended, it was not meant to be. Dave
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#21
08-02-2007, 04:21
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no, i meant, i think you were taking LIL original post too personal believe me, I do it often defending our country but in a investing forum, i think hes just giving his opinion, not US bashing
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