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#1
21-11-2007, 03:24
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17 Reasons the US needs a recession
Looks like things are going to get much worse before they get better. Or they should, anyway. One man's opinion, he may be a crackpot, but he makes good points.
Posted here since the US is the world's economic locomotive. And it appears that we need a "correction" for past, politically-correct economic decisions.
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Non illegitimi carborundum est. - Don't let the bastards grind you down. 
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#2
21-11-2007, 03:34
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I have invested it as best I can, but, many people are turning thier noses up at my money right now. I am getting about 10% (Not bad) I hope it changes soon...................As I am loosing out here!
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The idea is to die young.........as late as possible. 
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#3
21-11-2007, 04:09
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have you kept it in $US Denver......I wouldn't advise on keeping US currency at present...... 10% is OK but I can get that with a bank here on 1 year fixed......managed funds I am getting 20%+
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 ....but of course I was verey verey draaank at the taaame!!!
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#4
21-11-2007, 04:17
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The AUD bit obviously did the best since I started in March. I have my advisor looking at moving the USD bit to your part of the world as he reckons he can get me nearer the 14-15% in NZ. I need to be able to live here comfortably and that means adding this to my Military pension and not going out with Dodger to expensive nightclubs etc! Nels, I gotta love ya and leave ya buddy, I'm a bit worse the wear for a few Sangsom Cokes over the ten tonight! If you have any good leads be sure to let me know.............OK! Big snogs for that shiny head of yours mate, don't tell Pabs, he only gets jealous!!!! 555555555555 Hope to catch up soon and tell Mum, D says hello!
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The idea is to die young.........as late as possible.
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#5
21-11-2007, 04:48
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mum's still got a soft spot for ya D'man....don't think I can ever cure her of that Patong Villa holiday romance....just think me and Sishow could have been brothers....5555
sad to say but she has moved on and married another rich fella...sorry mate she's a mercenary one.....and she's farting through silk these days (no follow through's in her thongs) Aussie $ combined with Aussie mineral shares + gold would have done well this year...thats where my managed funds have been concentrated.....and 20+% without risking capital is a fair investment IMHO
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....but of course I was verey verey draaank at the taaame!!!
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#6
21-11-2007, 05:28
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Definitely the place to have your money so far this year. The US dollar has lost out in a big way compared to gold. With the gloomy US outlook,lets hope it doesn`t drag the Chinese economy down with it as thats were the current demand for Australian resources is coming from. There could be a big shake out of all the markets and fixed interest is starting to look like a safe haven for the short to medium term at the moment.. Have a look at this managed fund,great return 72% for the last year. Can`t last forever though https://funds.comsec.com.au//Public/...x?FundID=40659
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Live Fast......... Last edited by The Loop : 21-11-2007 at 05:32.
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#7
21-11-2007, 07:03
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looks like an exceptional year for that one Lew....would like a crystal ball for the next year on that one....
I'm happily getting 25%+ AFTER TAX (at the top threshold) on my fund....without breaking a sweat....gotta be happy with that!!
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....but of course I was verey verey draaank at the taaame!!!
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#9
21-11-2007, 08:56
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if the knock-on effect on large banks (like CitiGroup this week) from subprime mortgage companies continues in the same vein as it has this year...its gonna be a hard one IMHO
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....but of course I was verey verey draaank at the taaame!!!
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#10
21-11-2007, 09:37
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You`re doing well Nels, managed funds are the way to go,but you still gotta keep your eye on changing trends in the worlds finance markets and economies. I more look towards the small cap sector and smart managers with good track records,like Macquarie in Oz. Quote:
When you consider your "average Joe" has been using these sub prime loans to fit out his home with all the latest electronic gadgets,furniture and fancy cars for years,and now that will all come to a end,every business in America and the world will suffer. Yes a recession is unavoidable and probably has already started,IMO. Lets hope it is not a hard landing. We could be in for a rough 5 or so years.
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Live Fast.........
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#11
21-11-2007, 11:10
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I use Macquarie in OZ.....but you've gotta watch their fees and Fisher Investments in NZ Both are good trustworthy FMs IMHO
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....but of course I was verey verey draaank at the taaame!!!
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#12
21-11-2007, 13:06
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Happened to have read that very article by Paul Farrell earlier today. IMHO, he's dead on. We were heading into a recession on the heels of the dotcom bust six years ago. Greenspan's shenanigans prevented it by printing money and handing it out to anyone with a piece of property, or a reckless desire to buy and sell property, and dishing it out in smaller chunks to anyone with a credit card, i.e., nearly everyone.
On account of that loose monetary policy, the value of a dollar has plummeted approx. 43% in those 6 yrs. It is all primarily on account of the need to keep people in America from feeling the immediate effects of military spending. It is the old conundrum: guns or butter. When American went to war in 1942, all sorts of goods had to be rationed for the war effort. Because no one was standing there offering to lend the money for war. They had to conduct big PR campaigns to get people to buy govt. bonds to help finance the war. But this war has all been fought on easy credit, so we have had guns and butter. Some day the bill comes due. As Farrell correctly makes the point, the longer we wait to get back on track, the worse the suffering will be. Unfortunately, with next year being an election year, the pols will be doing all they can to sell the "everything is rosy, no worries" story to the voters, thereby further postponing the days of reckoning. But there is one canary in the coal mine that they can't hide from us, and they can't shut up, although they will all be pointing the finger at each other to explain it away. That is the cost of gasoline, because they don't make that in China, and it must be paid for with hard currency. The softer the dollar gets, the more dollars it will take to get the oil.
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LOS is warm, soft, smooth, and brown. 
Last edited by JayBee : 21-11-2007 at 13:10.
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#13
21-11-2007, 14:39
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Yes,the dollar has nearly halved,and gold has nearly doubled in that time. Would have been a very brave man back then to sell up all his assets and put it into gold.Brave back then,very rich now. Professor Marc Faber has been preaching just that for a long time. Gold is still the real international currency,paper(US dollars) ain`t worth sh1t. Off this particular thread a little.I know there are some high powered money market types/profesionals that use this site. Why is the British Pound so strong? I don`t get it.The country is cold and overcrowded,they have no resources or manufacturing. They are best known for kippers, black puddin  and Posh and Beck`s,nobody wants live there.Why is their currency so strong?
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Live Fast......... Last edited by The Loop : 21-11-2007 at 14:52.
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#14
21-11-2007, 16:05
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Other factor's include the interest rates, which are higher in the UK, thereby making the pound more attractive than the dollar, the annual national deficit which is relatively much lower in UK than US, and personal savings rates which are higher for Brits than Americans(the American rate is currently negative). All of these factors contribute to the reasons that the US is expanding its' money supply at a greater rate than the UK. As a supply of money increases, unless it is accompanied by an equivalent increase in production of goods and services, then that currency is being diluted, and is worth less as there is too much of it in circulation. This is the situation in the US, but not in the UK. If you look at these factors and compare the pound to other currencies, you will see the pound grows or decreases in value primarily in relation to how these factors affect the money supply, and the relationship between the money supply and productivity. In specific instances, however, there can be other factors, such as the Chinese govt. controlling the value of the yuan, speculation in the baht as a proxy for the yuan, and markets trading currencies at a premium for perceived future value based on current trends.
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LOS is warm, soft, smooth, and brown.
Last edited by JayBee : 21-11-2007 at 16:10.
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#15
21-11-2007, 21:22
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Whose ox
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Denver, I sunk my entire net worth into an oil patch in Montana. We are making regular deliveries now after a very @#$%ing expensive summer. When something breaks over a mile underground a fix involves a workover rig, a crew, and of course money. Lots of money. And right now oilfield people and equipment are in seriously short supply. (Actually, it is about time they caught a break.) But we got into a production mode just recently, afore the first big snowstorm of the season, we now endure the acid test of winter operations. So for me the price of oil is a good thing-- it was <50 $/bbl when I got into this. But it still hurts to fill up my 2007 Dodge Ram 2500 (diesel) for about $125. Crocodile tears indeed.
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Non illegitimi carborundum est. - Don't let the bastards grind you down.
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#16
22-11-2007, 01:09
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When the price of petrol/diesel reaches the UK price of over $9 US per gallon, then maybe you too will cry and maybe can sympathise with the residents of the UK who are paying that right now. Oil at close to $100US a barrel is hurting us badly, but not the taxman!
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If we aren't supposed to eat animals, why are they made of meat?
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#17
22-11-2007, 03:10
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Hard as a rock
True, the US has always paid an artificially low price for oil but then again, we pay an artificially high price for keeping the world's volatile oil fields online.
It might be politically incorrect to point out that the price of oil is _as low_ as it is simply because people like my humble self, poured their own money into the recovery thereof. In my case way north of $1/3 mil. So I find it hard to sympathize. Regarding "the taxman:" he only has a job as long as the TAXED tolerate it. At least in those countries which "evolved" from the Blighty Model. If your government is out of control who, exactly, is to blame?
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Non illegitimi carborundum est. - Don't let the bastards grind you down.
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#18
22-11-2007, 03:12
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#19
22-11-2007, 03:17
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Assuming you have a 35 gallon tank..you would be paying 233 USD,for the same in Norway  7
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#20
22-11-2007, 03:18
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Got to agree with Tarzan on this one , your "benevolence" had nothing to do with making a profit for yourself.
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Member of Phuket Hash House Harriers
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#21
22-11-2007, 03:30
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Silent type
Not sure exactly what Tarzan means... "Me Tarzan, you CF, me know how best spend your money?"
I put my money where it has growth potential and... newsflash!... can help the greater good. What a shock that someone would NOT complain about high fuel prices, rather, does something on a personal level about them. And... this is not a case of merely instructing my broker to buy oil stocks. We are a two-pump operations (at present) and I spent many cold days on the patch doing the grimiest jobs imaginable. Attached is a snapshot of our pumphouse at the beginning. Note the shotgun blast hole in the door. Am I to be ashamed that my guess turned out correct? Never happened before, be assured. But if you want to blame me for oil company "greed"... bummer. |