Thailand - Trillion-Dollar Meltdown

ATMwalking · #36 17-04-2008, 12:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

But we only came off the gold standard fully when nixon closed the gold window in 73 (or 72 ??).. Then Loius Ranieri at solomon worked out how to securitize debt instruments through tranches in the 80s.. SO in the last 2 decades this whole thing has grown exponentially.. This is far more dangerous than almost anyone gives it credit (pardon the pun) people like soros / Buffet / etc have been warning that these games could literally bring down the banking system.

If the shit does hit the fan, you could look back in history and put a lot of that on the shoulders of Louie..

Yes there are many ways to be irresponsible. I think Greenspan said derivatives were a time bomb. So sure, there are lots of ways to hurt yourself.

But is it an issue of the currency or simply of responsibility. The act of physical mining does force some constraints. So why not just mimic those constraints?

There is such a big gap from the craziness of this asset backed paper problem and calling for the return of gold backed paper currency. If the issue is lack of discipline, then they could simply pass a law limiting the amount of currency that can be introduced every year. Money supply can only be increased by X%. Could even pick a rate that matches the amount of gold that could be introduced every year so it is based on some type of real product rate. That is far more realistic as the global economy is or will be larger than the amount of yellow metal we can find in the ground.

LivinLOS · #37 17-04-2008, 13:07

Sure.. I would 100% agree that a totally capped monetary system that involved no monetary expansion would not suffer inflation and not have these risks.

But politics is such that no politician can ever resist the pork barrel politics.. Human nature defeats that.. This is why it was constitutionally ruled it should be a fixed system and why politicians cant help themselves if its not.

Secondly the fractional reserve banking (did you watch debt as money) basically demands an exponential ever increasing money supply.

It doesnt have to be a gold system (tho gold has always been money and has many properties that make it ideal for money (its valuable in small amounts, it doesnt tarnish or corrode, its easily divisible etc) it can be any system that hold the money supply static. The 'gold' part if it is almost irrelevant, its the holding money supply and showing fiscal responsibility thats vital.

K2 · #38 17-04-2008, 14:45

Quote:

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

Secondly the fractional reserve banking (did you watch debt as money) basically demands an exponential ever increasing money supply.

As long as global population continues to expand (consumption/production) then current model will survive - not ideal but going back to any sort of gold standard is nigh on impossible.

What would make the tin foilers scenario potentially foreseeable is a major world pandemic or war that wiped out enough of the world's population such that it declined - then we really would be in scaryville.

LivinLOS · #39 17-04-2008, 15:12

I agree a gold standard will be impossible without a meltdown of the system (not just a stock market meltdown)..

However comparing money supply growth (what 17% per annum now) with population growth is a little off.. Whats the US population growth ??

K2 · #40 17-04-2008, 16:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

Whats the US population growth ??

Population growth rate: 0.883% (2008 est.)

https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat.../print/us.html

Add on the illegals and still way off the near 20% growth in M3!

Some key statistics

Wake up call in progress for sure.

So-cal · #41 18-04-2008, 03:12

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATMwalking

That is my uneducated gut feel. Nice to see it shared by someone with a more analytical view.

Today there are food riots around the globe. Oil price is a huge problem we are only starting to feel. It is only gong to get worse if this isn't nipped in the butt. Prop up the USD and problems solved. They will break whatever rules they need to make it happen. At least time is bought for a new person to get into the whitehouse and turn off the Iraq taps and clean up the housing mess. All countries will get on board with that because it is in their best interest for the short-term.

so food prices are going up. dammit if farmers are ever aloud to make some money.

So-cal · #42 18-04-2008, 03:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by nelsonone

not just around the corner but I can see USA falling behind China, EEC (especially the Euro as a currency) and possibly even India in the next 20-30 year cycle.....

who would have thought that late last century

what about per capita

Is china not breaking the rules by being communist

So-cal · #43 18-04-2008, 03:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by nelsonone

well works the other way too....if you want to get something done you just make a law....paves the way for rapid future expansion in China's case...Chinas biggest concerns are skilling at a compatable rate to growth + inflation...I have been amazed at the build quality of furniture coming out of there especially in the last year....as good as and soemtimes better than Europe for about a quarter of te price!!!

bet if you break down the USA's wealth it would be very similar to Europe....say 90% held by 10%

A guy living in a condo in new york paying 3500 a month rent plus a 1500 dallar lease on a BMW has no wealth, but look at his lifestyle

LivinLOS · #44 18-04-2008, 05:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by So-cal

what about per capita

Is china not breaking the rules by being communist

Rules ?? What rules ??

LivinLOS · #45 18-04-2008, 05:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by So-cal

A guy living in a condo in new york paying 3500 a month rent plus a 1500 dallar lease on a BMW has no wealth, but look at his lifestyle

Ahh the new American dream.. Borrow as much as you can and spend the lot.

Any economy to be able to progress needs to have savings to invest, start new business, to create new industry, to be able to weather lifes ups and downs.

Because the US managed to engineer the USD as the reserve currency of the world, via the marshall plan and the bretton woods agreements, because the USD is the unit of exchange for all oil trades (and you may notice what happened when Saddam said he would sell his oil for Euros... Hmm WMD's or a nice slight of hand there ??) the USD has had an enourmous tailwind. Because of that market the US has been able to use the worlds savings to run up a nearly 9.5 trillion national debt, that they cannot and will not repay.

This has really been something that started being really dangerous about 20 years ago, went nuts about a decade ago and went exponential when Bubbles Greenspan kept 1% rates back in 2002..

sundancekid · #46 18-04-2008, 15:32

No need to worry then if McCain becomes the next President. Just loved this comment in the Boston Globe:

"The issue of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should," McCain said. "I've got Greenspan's book."

So-cal · #47 18-04-2008, 22:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

Rules ?? What rules ??

democracy.

Dupree00 · #48 18-04-2008, 22:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by So-cal

A guy living in a condo in new york paying 3500 a month rent plus a 1500 dallar lease on a BMW has no wealth, but look at his lifestyle

It's not about how much money you got. It's about how much money you look like you got. Die young. Stay pretty.

LivinLOS · #49 19-04-2008, 08:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by So-cal

democracy.

What like Saudi Arabia then ??? And who says that democracy is a rule ??

The US have overthrown multiple democratic governments to instill thier own dictator.. Shar of Iran over Mossadeq is a prime example.. The CIA went in and overturned a properly elected government becuase they were going to take back the oil tricked out of them by US and GB oil companies. So the CIA instil the Shar who was a absolute dictator and ran some of the most brutal torturing secret police in history much like those still used for Latin American dictators the west installs, trained at the US base called 'The School of the Americas' now moved from Panama to US soil. It was a rection to this US lead meddling in the country that directly lead to the Ayatollah and the hardline Iran we have now, can you spell blowback children ?? yes you can..

Dont confuse the PR they tell you with the way the world really works.

Dupree00 · #50 19-04-2008, 09:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

Dont confuse the PR they tell you with the way the world really works.

HA! Next you'll be sayin' there's no Santa Claus.

K2 · #51 19-04-2008, 10:58

While there is all this doom and end of the (financial) world stuff ... anyone care to paint a picture of the utopia they would like to see in place of what we now have....

TanMan · #52 19-04-2008, 12:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

What like Saudi Arabia then ??? And who says that democracy is a rule ??

The US have overthrown multiple democratic governments to instill thier own dictator.. Shar of Iran over Mossadeq is a prime example.. The CIA went in and overturned a properly elected government becuase they were going to take back the oil tricked out of them by US and GB oil companies. So the CIA instil the Shar who was a absolute dictator and ran some of the most brutal torturing secret police in history much like those still used for Latin American dictators the west installs, trained at the US base called 'The School of the Americas' now moved from Panama to US soil. It was a rection to this US lead meddling in the country that directly lead to the Ayatollah and the hardline Iran we have now, can you spell blowback children ?? yes you can..

Dont confuse the PR they tell you with the way the world really works.

This post reeks of internet research and Ron Paul politico... At the same time, I agree 100%. Truer words were never spoken...

LivinLOS · #53 19-04-2008, 12:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by K2

While there is all this doom and end of the (financial) world stuff ... anyone care to paint a picture of the utopia they would like to see in place of what we now have....

The world marching in tune to jackbooted rhythm of our new yellow imperial masters ??

Lets hope not but who knows.. Thailands certainly getting nicely in step !!

So-cal · #54 19-04-2008, 13:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

What like Saudi Arabia then ??? And who says that democracy is a rule ??

The US have overthrown multiple democratic governments to instill thier own dictator.. Shar of Iran over Mossadeq is a prime example.. The CIA went in and overturned a properly elected government becuase they were going to take back the oil tricked out of them by US and GB oil companies. So the CIA instil the Shar who was a absolute dictator and ran some of the most brutal torturing secret police in history much like those still used for Latin American dictators the west installs, trained at the US base called 'The School of the Americas' now moved from Panama to US soil. It was a rection to this US lead meddling in the country that directly lead to the Ayatollah and the hardline Iran we have now, can you spell blowback children ?? yes you can..

Dont confuse the PR they tell you with the way the world really works.

Being the worlds police is a tough job. The sha of Iran was the best of 2 evils and president Jimmy Carter didnt support the sha so now look what we got. A total fanatic f*ck show that is trying to get nuclear weapons to destroy isreal. I would take the sha any day as would anyone with brains.

Does the US not have a right to choose who they support? Or is that what is known as taking over the world?

So-cal · #55 19-04-2008, 13:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dupree00

HA! Next you'll be sayin' there's no Santa Claus.

The US will do busniess with any country that wants to cooperate. If you want to cooperate they will welcome you with open arms.

Like japan before WW2 and japan after WW2. Germany, iraq, same thing

So-cal · #56 19-04-2008, 13:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

The world marching in tune to jackbooted rhythm of our new yellow imperial masters ??

Lets hope not but who knows.. Thailands certainly getting nicely in step !!

Yeah because communism has a history of working so well in the longrun.

LivinLOS · #57 19-04-2008, 15:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by So-cal

Being the worlds police is a tough job. The sha of Iran was the best of 2 evils and president Jimmy Carter didnt support the sha so now look what we got. A total fanatic f*ck show that is trying to get nuclear weapons to destroy isreal. I would take the sha any day as would anyone with brains.

Does the US not have a right to choose who they support? Or is that what is known as taking over the world?

How was Mossadeq an 'evil' ?? He was a ELECTED leader of a free country.. That is until the US felt like they might lose some cheap oil !!

Obviously the Iranians wouldnt take the Shar.. They got rid of him and started another DEMOCRACY !!! One which the US is again trying to get rid of.

What right do you have to go around meddling, assassinating, and controlling all these other countries.. This is why the world especially the world without power has such an anti US feeling.