$120 Oil

[K2]

Originally Posted by nelsonone

busy boy LiL....555

BTW my portfolio manager is suggesting topping up on more gold at the mo'...555

~100 posts to go before LiL catches IJ at last!

N1 - would agree with him - gold might struggle a bit at $905 level but once through this should be on track for new highs.

[LivinLOS]

Originally Posted by nelsonone

busy boy LiL....555

BTW my portfolio manager is suggesting topping up on more gold at the mo'...555

Just first few cups of coffee and watching the dawn..

I said 850 was the line that had to hold.. Last couple of days it looks like it has but it could be being just dragged along with oil for the ride..

Long term I feel great, short term summer doldrums ?? Not sure.. I am crap at 'trades' only good at trends.

[nelsonone]

had a funny conversation with the portfolio manager considering it was he who had me sell half at $920...anyway he found a good home away from gold for that which has been good so fa....but he too is pretty bullish again on the gold front as he reckons the US economy is gonna dip again very soon and oil will pull gold with it

[JayBee]

OK, I'm in! More gold, more gold more gold!! Got the fever!! Feel like Bogie in "Treasure of the Sierra Madre!"

[JayBee]

See y'all later! Got to go drive my big gas-guzzling SUV a mere 7 miles to go to the Post Office and mail a letter, then 10 miles from there to go home(which is 3 miles from the office I'm at now)! Zoom - zoom!!

[Dupree00]

Originally Posted by JayBee

OK, I'm in! More gold, more gold more gold!! Got the fever!! Feel like Bogie in "Treasure of the Sierra Madre!"

If you dont mind my asking. What do you buy to represent GOLD? Right now I have a Fidelity Gold Fund but thinking of getting something else to compliment it.

[LivinLOS]

Can actually but the stuff.. Or you can buy GLD.. Or perth certs.. Or or or..

Or you can buy a gold index like the HUI (GDX as a tracker).. Or mining stocks.. or..

All depends on leverage risk etc..

[Dupree00]

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

Can actually but the stuff.. Or you can buy GLD.. Or perth certs.. Or or or..

Or you can buy a gold index like the HUI (GDX as a tracker).. Or mining stocks.. or..

All depends on leverage risk etc..

On the Perth Certs. What type of investor would they be most suited for? Are they easily bought and sold like a stock or more for a LT hold?

[LivinLOS]

You buy from one of their authorized dealers.. And its a promissory note to deliver gold (or buy back the cert) backed up by the western oz government. Its basically the same (unless your really end of the world, tin foiler) as owning gold but without the storage, insurance, hassles.

Kitco handle buy and sells online..

[marc26]

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

PCH1 from LA north.. Through Big Sur and Monterey.. In a 60's GTO, or a mustang, or stingray ?? Come on !! I wish I could get Bee a visa as I would truly love to do it !! Oil price be damned !!

i'm doing the drive down PCH1 from SF to Monterey with Chuck from work end of this month
same same.....but a lot different 55555

[nelsonone]

I did SF to San Diego south in a convertable mustang (late 90's model rental unfortunately) several years back....I liked being sea side!

[JayBee]

Originally Posted by Dupree00

If you dont mind my asking. What do you buy to represent GOLD? Right now I have a Fidelity Gold Fund but thinking of getting something else to compliment it.

I like US Global Investors Funds. They have their Precious Minerals Fund(UNWPX), which has returned 43.5% per annum for the 6 yrs ending 12/31/07, and their Gold Fund(USERX), which has returned 37% per annum for the same period. Also, these funds pay big distributions every year in December, so pretty good for income.

For stocks, I like Yamana Gold Co.(AUY) and Goldcorp(GG). These are pure gold plays, and I think they are very well-priced at the moment, but starting to move back up again. GG is more of a blue chip gold stock. Yamana is a smaller producer. The PE on GG is 56(ttm) which may seem very high, but it is really based on selling gold at an average price of about 700 which they were getting last year. If current gold prices hold up in the 850 range for 2008, the earnings will soar, since their cost of producton is probably close to 500 now, so that is a 75% profit increase. If gold moved to 1000 then the increase becomes more in the 150% range. Compared to oil, these PEs are very high, even after projecting profit increases, but oil is a relative newcomer to the idea of buying it to offset inflation and currency weaknesses. Yamana has a PE of 38(ttm), so there is more upside there. It appears to be heating up again this week, after gold's downward momentum seemed to be checked by new dollar weakness, and support at the 850 level. Imho, these are good stocks to average in on.

One other stock I like is Anglo-American(AAUK). It is more of a lower leverage play, since it is a conglomerate that has its' fingers in a lot of pies. But it does have gold, platinum, diamonds, and other precious metal interests, and benefits nicely from increases in these areas, while not being as hard hit if there is a rollback in price of gold. The recent gold weakness didn't affect this stock much at all.

I also own some bullion, but I would have to look it up to tell you which one.

[LivinLOS]

For non gold specific mining (silver)

For a punt that could be a 10 bagger.. Try looking at baja mining but min 2 3 year timeline.. Good management, great resources, all prospective planning so far going on schedule.. Forward PE of 1 !!! No current earnings.

One for the brave.

[Dupree00]

Good Tips. Thanx

[JayBee]

It's always good to have a little silver in the portfolio, as well, IMHO. For an established producer, I like Silver Wheaton(SLW). It is a pure silver play and will respond quickly to movement in the price of silver(up or down).

[Minder]

Originally Posted by marc26

i'm doing the drive down PCH1 from SF to Monterey with Chuck from work end of this month
same same.....but a lot different 55555

You know what I'm gonna do?
I'm gonna get myself a 1967 Cadilac El Dorado Convertable
Hot pink!
With whale skin hub caps
An all leather cow interior
And big brown baby seal eyes for headlights
YEAH!
And I'm gonna drive around in that baby
At 115 miles per hour
Getting one mile per gallon ....

I loved my V8 (make that V8's) but they are gone and will never return for the average Joe.

I lived in Melbourne in 1998 when Longford blew-up - and natural gas supplies to the city disappeared overnight and stayed gone for several weeks - suddenly Melbourne had new definitions of rich and poor - the "new rich" were those who had electric hot water - the ultra rich were those who had both electric cooking and hot water. Big houses in expensive suburbs that relied solely on natural gas, and the people who lived in them became part of the new poor. Single women took to picking up men in bars based on going home to his electric hot water and having a shower. In some ways it was a joke in other ways it was a lesson - a lesson on how vulnerable we were.

I live in Australia - if I can't turn on the heating one day - it will be uncomfortable but I won't die from it. Not so many of those in the northern hemisphere - I need oil to "live" - they need it to "survive". That's scary.

[LivinLOS]

Originally Posted by JayBee

It's always good to have a little silver in the portfolio, as well, IMHO. For an established producer, I like Silver Wheaton(SLW). It is a pure silver play and will respond quickly to movement in the price of silver(up or down).

Own Wheaton too.. been knocked back hard on the latest moves..

I actually think in % terms silver will do even better then gold due to incredibly small market and industrial / dual use.

[planter]

so what does all this mean for gold? every where you read its now down trending and has lower to go, what do you guys think the gold price will be 6, 12 or 18 months from now?

[LivinLOS]

Next 6 months.. slow summer doldrums, indian wedding season over.. seasonal physical demand weakness usually until end Aug.. Of course anything can happen with financial blow up that cause a spike.

Previously I had said 1250 this year for gold.. Thats looking a little bullish as I dont think we will see an assault on new highs in the short term. A good run at year end could do it.

I still think your going to see gold many multiples above its current levels as stagflation cements itself over the next months and could even run up into 2010 etc. 1500+ by end of 2010.

But what the **** do I know..

[Captain]

One point I am missing in the discussion is the (new) need for oil in countries like China and India. Few years ago China was happy eating rice, now they are the biggest importers of Ferrari and Rolls Royce, so a lot of other people are getting (car mobilised also), they are roaming the markets for ore/iron & Copper (check how those prices went up every year)... and they are "invading" Africa for raw materials.

[marc26]

Originally Posted by Minder

[i]

I live in Australia - if I can't turn on the heating one day - it will be uncomfortable but I won't die from it. Not so many of those in the northern hemisphere - I need oil to "live" - they need it to "survive". That's scary.

thats what i like about Vancouver
i have never turned on the heat or AC in my apartment

[LivinLOS]

No heat ???

Isnt winter still very damn cold ???

[nelsonone]

Paulie must be running on self generation for his winter warm air....555

[marc26]

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

No heat ???

Isnt winter still very damn cold ???

not in vancouver

gets about 10 c at the coldest
plus i live on the 20th floor, so sort of gets heat from other apartments??

i think if a cartain someone gets a visa, there might be some issues with this though 5555

[Denver]

Reckon we'll see 'Billybob V8 Dodge Junior the third' in a Toyota Yaris by the end of the year? 555555555

Hell No!