Bubbles: 2010

[K2]

(Otherwise could be tittled Kev & Seft's financial/economic babblings)

With 2009 done and dusted (nearly) its time to look forward to a fresh new shiny year - for now I am sidelined on making any major predictions.

Bonds - still feel day of reckoning coming as US recovery does grow 'legs' the pace the Fed tightening (castrated by Rom Paul's Bell? / or not) may well cause some deep pain to fixed income investors.

Stocks - How much longer can GS/JPM keep this rally going? 'Pop' can't be very far away but steering away from shorting (despite the huge temptation) until data or market action confirms (S&P below 1020?).

FX - One I am in is long USD, may be premature but prepared for pain to increase exposure.

Commodities - late cycle performers, so strength is a bit perplexing, Gold targets $1300 still and oil should test $100 before a very rude awakening for the late commers!

Wishing all a propersous 2010.

[marc26]

[QUOTE=K2;692703
Stocks - How much longer can GS/JPM keep this rally going? :[/QUOTE]

seems the evil empire is worried about outside appearances
i was refused in my efforts to buy the guys at GS lunch this year

i told them at least i get credit for asking, best outcome 55555

[LivinLOS]

Start as we mean to go on..

U.S. bank failure tally reaches 133 - Dec. 11, 2009

[JayBee]

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

Start as we mean to go on..

U.S. bank failure tally reaches 133 - Dec. 11, 2009

Seems to be going right along according to the inflate/deleverage plan. They water down the debt with QE money printing, using the money for bailout and stimulus packages, while concurrently accomplishing some deleveraging at the expense of the small players, while turning over their money-making assets, at bargain prices, to the too-big-to-fail players, which helps them boost their balance sheets.

The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Which is exactly as it should be, according to the Goldman(Sachs) Rule.

[marc26]

market wise
volumes have been up and down and very sporadic
one day, extremely busy, the next it falls off a cliff

obviously with the holidays, it will remain that way for a while
the dip in Gold provided some decent trading opportunities and moved some stock

Loop
of interest to you, i have been getting a ton of interest and orders in AUS stocks this last month
all cheap stocks, but definitely a lot more than normal

[K2]

Originally Posted by marc26

market wise
volumes have been up and down and very sporadic
one day, extremely busy, the next it falls off a cliff

I'm done for the year ... prob leave first week or so of 2010 alone as well ... expect the usual rubbish and this Friday is OpEx so baring the Fed saying anything daft on Wed can forget about the 'noise' for a little while.

PS: Congrats on 20k posts Paulie!

[K2]

Wrong kind of 'green shoots' !!!

[LivinLOS]

Greece defies Europe as EMU crisis turns deadly serious - Telegraph

[K2]

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

Greece defies Europe as EMU crisis turns deadly serious - Telegraph

Very worthwhile read ... this is what happens when you dont have a central debt issuing agency to reign in errant spending ... could Greece fracture the EU, IMO risk is > 5% as cant see Berlin, Paris or London being able to foist Club Med's debts on its over taxed populus.

[marc26]

Originally Posted by K2

I'm done for the year ... prob leave first week or so of 2010 alone as well :

I have no positions in my prop account after today
Flight on Thursday and out of office until Jan12

I will check out the market before I head out most evenings and if I like a certain level here or there I'll take a small position while away
But I don't plan on being too involved at all

[K2]

Gulf petro-powers to launch currency in latest threat to dollar hegemony - Telegraph

[The Loop]

Hurst cycles!!
Suggesting that the USD bubble may not be finished yet.

[ub2yoo]

Don't know if there are any Gold fans on this forum ;-), but what would be the short term direction of it in midst of the $ rally?

Interesting turn around the last 3 weeks ...

K2 is long on the $ ... but unfortunately, didn't provide a number, only a direction;-)

[LivinLOS]

Well how you think would depend on how much you believe in the gold and silver shorting by the bullion banks (manipulation) story you accept.. Theres massive shorts on, but there seems to be quite a lot of non US buying, can they afford to keep shorting into the face of that take off ??

So far the 1100 to 1100 range has been providing pretty strong resistance, more than I expected.. I was thinking this would be a 1050 pullback or even test down to triple digits again. So the fact that so far this has been a line is pleasing to me.

For a trade the HUI (GDX) has been hit hard and is trading back where gold was when under 1000.. I am seeing increasing volume on individual PM stocks and reckon GDX and the riskier GDXJ would be a traders play.

[LivinLOS]

Seven U.S. Banks Are Seized, Raising Year?s Failure Toll to 140 - Bloomberg.com

[The Loop]

Any significance in this re POO?

Friday, 18 December 2009
Iran troops 'seize Iraq oil well'

Iranian troops have entered southern Iraqi territory and taken control of an oil well, reports say.

An Iraqi official played down the incident, saying the area was abandoned and right on a disputed border section.

Iranian soldiers crossed the border and raised an Iranian flag over the Fakkah oil field, a US military spokesman told the AFP news agency.

But an Iranian oil company spokesman denied the accusation, saying no troops had taken control of any oil well.

"The company denies Iranian soldiers taking control of any oil well inside Iraqi territory," the National Iranian Oil Company spokesman was quoted as saying by Iranian media.

Confirmation

Iraq's Deputy Interior Minister confirmed the Iranians stayed in Iraq and were in control of the well.

[The Loop]

Originally Posted by The Loop

Any significance in this re POO?

From bloomberg article

"Crude oil for January delivery rose 71 cents, or 1 percent, to settle at $73.36 a barrel today on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It rose as much as 2.8 percent in intraday trading on news of the incursion."

[K2]

Yaaawwwwn ... its silly season in earnest ... put some ridiculous bids (or offers) in if you must play ... you may get lucky - if not, wait for sanity to return next year!

Chok Dee!

[LivinLOS]

Moody's 'axe blow' to rating on Spanish debts - Telegraph

More club med eurozone risk factors.

How much is the recent dollar rise an EUR fall ??

[K2]

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

How much is the recent dollar rise an EUR fall ??

See here:

Trade Weighted US dollar Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

... I'm taking a wild guess and no-one's rushing to do the maths (and JB is on 'holiday') ... so here yas go ...

The formula to compute the US Dollar Index is: US Dollar Index = 50.14348112 * ((EURUSD ^ 0.576) * (JPYUSD ^ 0.136) * (GBPUSD ^0.119) * (CANUSD ^ 0.091) * (SEKUSD ^ 0.042) * (CHFUSD^.036) ).

[LivinLOS]

I didnt mean in pure numbers.. I meant in psychology of movement, then others jumping on the bandwagon..

A USD rally was overdue, I agreed with that, it was a very crowded trade pushing down the dollar. But Also I think the dollar recovery is also a Euro downgrade which isnt getting the news as much.

[Rex7777]

Originally Posted by ub2yoo

Don't know if there are any Gold fans on this forum ;-), but what would be the short term direction of it in midst of the $ rally?

Interesting turn around the last 3 weeks ...

K2 is long on the $ ... but unfortunately, didn't provide a number, only a direction;-)

According to the official Rex7777 gut instinct, I wouldn't be surprised to see gold back below $900 before too long. I wouldn't let that bother me, though.
If you have gold, it should be for the longer term. An ounce of gold is an ounce of gold.

[K2]

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

I didnt mean in pure numbers..

Oh OK then ... another 4-5% will do me ... when everyone turns bullish

NB: These Google Ads are getting smarter ... they are touting Technical Analysis & Wealth Management Co's on this thread!

[The Loop]

Originally Posted by K2

they are touting Technical Analysis & Wealth Management Co's on this thread!

Hmmm...they seem to be stalking me from forum to forum...

[LivinLOS]

Marc Faber on Gloom, Boom & Doom Report (Part 1)-Expert Views-TV-Economic Times

Part 2 and 3 there also..

[LivinLOS]

washingtonpost.com

Cheeky ****ers.. They crash Chrysler and Saab for the want of pennies and forgive 38 bn with Citi..

[LivinLOS]

Kitco - Commentaries - Puru Saxena



BIG PICTURE- “It’s a question of how do you achieve the deleveraging. Do you go through a long period of slow growth, high savings and many legal problems or do you accept higher inflation? It would ameliorate the debt bomb and help us work through the deleveraging process” – Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard, Former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund

Make no mistake; the developed world is drowning in debt and as outlined above, there are only two viable options – a global economic depression or very high inflation. It is our contention that the policymakers have chosen the latter option and over the following years, we will experience the trauma of severe inflation.

Look. The American government is staring at total obligations of US$115 trillion, America’s debt to GDP ratio is off the charts and the American public is also up to its eyeballs in debt. Under this scenario, you can bet your bottom dollar that the American establishment will try to reduce this debt overhang through a process known as monetary inflation. If you have any doubt whatsoever, take a look at Figure 1 which captures the incredible expansion in America’s monetary base. As you can see, over the past two years, the monetary base in America has expanded from US$827 billion to an astonishing US$1.93 trillion! Up until now, this surge in the monetary base has not permeated through the broad economy but once the money velocity picks up, the money supply will zoom and the end result will be surging price inflation.

[The Loop]

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

]Marc Faber on Gloom, Boom & Doom Report (Part 1)-Expert Views-TV-Economic Times[/url]

Part 2 and 3 there also..

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

[/IMG]

BIG PICTURE- “It’s a question of how do you achieve the deleveraging. Do you go through a long period of slow growth, high savings and many legal problems or do you accept higher inflation? It would ameliorate the debt bomb and help us work through the deleveraging process” – Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics at Harvard, Former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund

Make no mistake; the developed world is drowning in debt and as outlined above, there are only two viable options – a global economic depression or very high inflation. It is our contention that the policymakers have chosen the latter option and over the following years, we will experience the trauma of severe inflation.

Look. The American government is staring at total obligations of US$115 trillion, America’s debt to GDP ratio is off the charts and the American public is also up to its eyeballs in debt. Under this scenario, you can bet your bottom dollar that the American establishment will try to reduce this debt overhang through a process known as monetary inflation. If you have any doubt whatsoever, take a look at Figure 1 which captures the incredible expansion in America’s monetary base. As you can see, over the past two years, the monetary base in America has expanded from US$827 billion to an astonishing US$1.93 trillion! Up until now, this surge in the monetary base has not permeated through the broad economy but once the money velocity picks up, the money supply will zoom and the end result will be surging price inflation.

I`m certainly hoping your 2 sources are right.

[The Loop]

TREASURIES-Bonds fall as recovery hopes fuel risk appetite
NEW YORK, Dec 22 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices declined on Tuesday as optimism over an economic recovery led investors to favor stocks and riskier assets over safer, low-yielding government debt.

Data showing a surprisingly strong 7.4 percent increase in existing home sales in November fanned hopes that nascent growth would accelerate next year. That news eclipsed government data revising down its third-quarter reading on gross domestic product...

That`ll do me for a chrissy present..

[LivinLOS]

Fitch warns that Britain and France risk losing their AAA rating - Telegraph

Gilts sell-off as Britain joins Italy in debt house - Telegraph

[ub2yoo]

We're just missing Coolhand and HSE predictions for 2010 ... ;-)

[The Loop]

U.S. Loans to Boost Nuclear Industry Seen Soon
By Ayesha Rascoe
December 28, 2009

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration is poised to announce loan guarantees to help kick-start the country's nuclear power industry, which hasn't built a new plant in more than three decades.

Congress authorized $18.5 billion for nuclear loan guarantees in 2005, hoping to revive development of the carbon-free source of energy. Investments in nuclear power has dried up on soaring costs following the 1979 accident at Three Mile Island.

But earlier this year, the U.S. Energy Department signaled it was keen to aid the industry and narrowed the list of those likely to receive loan guarantees to four: Southern Co, Constellation Energy, NRG Energy and SCANA Corp.

"When DOE issues their first loan guarantee, that's going to send an important signal to private-sector financing, and Wall Street in particular," said John Keeley, a spokesman for the Nuclear Energy Institute.

Southern, which wants to build two reactors at the Vogtle plant in Georgia, is expected to be awarded the first loan guarantee.

Energy Department officials would not give a specific date on when the details will be announced but said they were committed to restarting the nuclear industry.

Get on board..

[11]

Good riddence to them:-

[LivinLOS]

Originally Posted by 11

Good riddence to them:-

Imagine how they would have looked if the false spin numbers (hedonically adjusted) were substituted by the real (john williamns shadowstats.com) numbers.. If the sheeple really caught on !!

[ub2yoo]

Reads the same like property in Dubai last year in June ...

"... they buy two apartments: one to live in, one to flip when prices jump further."


China Property Bubble May Lead to U.S.-Style Real Estate Slump - Bloomberg.com