Exchange rates

[Expat]

Exactly 2 weeks before I arrive in Phuket & I'm about to send 60 K euro to LOS and the rate is still under 50 (my psychological cutoff point) - has anyone dealt with a forex broker to link the exchange to a given rate? Can they be trusted? (the idea of creditting a bank account of a total stranger with my life savings scares the s*it out of me).
I'll need the money to buy my house end of july & if I lose 1 baht on each euro that 60 000 baht gone - alot of "bia Sings".
Anyone been down this road? any advice?
cheers

[S1MON]

This is the site my boss uses to transfer money from dollars to pounds, i have not used it myself but they guarentee the best rates, perhaps worth checking out for such a large sum of money.

https://www.xe.com/fx/
HTH
Simon

[gregor200]

at www.oanda.com you can check the history of the EUR to THB. Just select history at the left bar and enter EUR in the first column and THB in the second. There you can see that the EUR is going down since April, I think.

The cause is, that the THB is linked very closely to the USD, therefore any change of EUR against USD will affect the currency. And it was never as bad as now the last 10 month. I was sending some money to Thailand just after tsumani and got about 0,53 for it. It was going down in February, then up again and is now at 0,49

What is the cause.
Europe has some problems now : The political development has been stalled after the plebiscite in France. The net payers like Germany and France have big financial problems.

The US figures have been more healthy than in Europe for the last quarter.

Therefore what can we bet on this ?
I do not think that the exchange rate will change a lot during the next 4 weeks. All currency dealers will now bet against the EUR. When the EUR stays week at end of June (end of quarter) they have enough money to extend their bet for the next quarter, otherwise the EUR will go up.

Therefore you can do the following
You can buy some futures on the Thai Baht or USD for the end of the year
and change your money against this. Your bank should be able to help you
by this transaction. When the EUR is going up against, as is expected after
the EC has solved its problems, you can sell your futures with a profit.

On the other hand you have to keep some deadlines now.
I send money normally with SWIFT to BangkokBank, that means 3 banking days of transfer time. European Banking Costs should be about 50-100 EUR (based on 60K), foreign bank expenses ARE TO BE PAID by foreign bank, this is a flat value of 1000 Baht per transaction at Bangkok Bank, as far as I know.

[Expat]

Originally Posted by gregor200

at www.oanda.com you can check the history of the EUR to THB. Just select history at the left bar and enter EUR in the first column and THB in the second. There you can see that the EUR is going down since April, I think.

The cause is, that the THB is linked very closely to the USD, therefore any change of EUR against USD will affect the currency. And it was never as bad as now the last 10 month. I was sending some money to Thailand just after tsumani and got about 0,53 for it. It was going down in February, then up again and is now at 0,49

What is the cause.
Europe has some problems now : The political development has been stalled after the plebiscite in France. The net payers like Germany and France have big financial problems.

The US figures have been more healthy than in Europe for the last quarter.

Therefore what can we bet on this ?
I do not think that the exchange rate will change a lot during the next 4 weeks. All currency dealers will now bet against the EUR. When the EUR stays week at end of June (end of quarter) they have enough money to extend their bet for the next quarter, otherwise the EUR will go up.

Therefore you can do the following
You can buy some futures on the Thai Baht or USD for the end of the year
and change your money against this. Your bank should be able to help you
by this transaction. When the EUR is going up against, as is expected after
the EC has solved its problems, you can sell your futures with a profit.

On the other hand you have to keep some deadlines now.
I send money normally with SWIFT to BangkokBank, that means 3 banking days of transfer time. European Banking Costs should be about 50-100 EUR (based on 60K), foreign bank expenses ARE TO BE PAID by foreign bank, this is a flat value of 1000 Baht per transaction at Bangkok Bank, as far as I know.

Thanks I found that very useful

[K2]

Expat - gregor200 makes some good points and agree that shift from europe back into USD is occuring.

EUR/THB options may be a good idea, but FX option pricing is probably not most peoples strong point as since its a house you are buying would leave option plays alone.

You should bear in mind that if you ever want to return the money to europe you will need to show that you brought the money in - so its best if you send the money via your bank with them noting on the transfer the purpose of the money is to buy a house. You will probably get a better excahnge rate if you do the exchange in your home country rather tha sending the EUR to Thailand and letting the Thai counterparty do the exchange here as you will be powerless over the rate you will get.

USD/THB has broken its long term (2yr) downtrend and is set for 42 - but speed of that move will depend much on USD/JPY once it gets through 110.

Good luck with your new life here.

NB - In future you may find that going to exchange sqaure, Singapore and changing cash gets you the best exchange rate anywhere - although for safety and documentation (if needed) this may not be practical.

[WildOnE]

Anyway I can exchange the $$$ now, I will be visiting thailand in december, from the trends of the USD it tends down go down in the high season. Sorry I am pretty much clueless when it comes to finance and the market.

[gregor200]

Originally Posted by Expat

Exactly 2 weeks before I arrive in Phuket & I'm about to send 60 K euro to LOS and the rate is still under 50 (my psychological cutoff point) - has anyone dealt with a forex broker to link the exchange to a given rate? Can they be trusted? (the idea of creditting a bank account of a total stranger with my life savings scares the s*it out of me).
I'll need the money to buy my house end of july & if I lose 1 baht on each euro that 60 000 baht gone - alot of "bia Sings".
Anyone been down this road? any advice?
cheers

Just looked up www.oanda.com. EUR is now moving up. Yesterday 51.47 Baht per EUR. Did you change already ?

[Expat]

Originally Posted by gregor200

Just looked up www.oanda.com. EUR is now moving up. Yesterday 51.47 Baht per EUR. Did you change already ?

Yes at 49.88
buggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbu ggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbuggerbugg erbuggerbuggerbugger#&********+°°°

[Tyfon]

Here's a year's worth of data from Oanda:

[gregor200]

Same in EURO to BAHT