The Nation: Thaksin gambled and lost

[Nicke]

Thaksin gambled and lost his shirt

Thaksin Shinawatra, licking his wounds in his London apartment, must by now be banging his head against the wall over the series of political blunders that cost him not only the premiership but also almost everything in his life.



But he has only himself - if not also his wife Khunying Pojaman - to blame. He trusts no one but his wife.

"Is he a good manager or a good CEO? I don't think so," said one political observer. "A good manager would never create damage to his organisation like this. There is no fallback position at all. Either he wins it all or he loses it all."

Indeed, Thaksin is a big gambler who likes to win it all or lose it all.

He won over the corporate world by becoming Thailand's richest businessman ever through his telecom empire. One account estimates his net worth at about US$3 billion (Bt113 billion). In Thailand, his family's proceeds of around Bt50 billion from the sale of Shin Corp to Temasek of Singapore are still parked in local banks under the watchful eyes of the banking authorities.

He entered politics to change Thailand forever or, to be more precise, to change Thailand with the politics of polarisation - of black and white, us and them, "either you're with me or against me".

Thaksin stretched his political ambition to the farthest limit. If he won the political battle, he would emerge as a strong prime minister in the mould of Dr Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia or Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore. If he lost, he would have to live in exile as a tyrant.

He knew it was a high-stakes game beforehand. A considerable amount of luggage belonging to the Shinawatra family was reportedly flown to Singapore much earlier. Again, before he headed to Finland to take part in the Asia-Europe Meeting Summit, more than 100 pieces of luggage of his family were flown out to London, and perhaps other, unknown destinations.

These unusual preparations showed that Thaksin knew about the looming battle that would determine his fate. He had a statement of declaration of emergency prepared before leaving for Finland, to be announced on September 20 in the event of casualties arising from clashes between his supporters and the People's Alliance for Democracy at the Royal Plaza.

Coup leader General Sonthi Boonyaratglin said the September 19 coup was planned only three days beforehand because he received intelligence reports about impending violence at the Royal Plaza. If the military had not stepped in, Thaksin would then have declared martial law to get rid of all of his political opponents and pave the way for a military reshuffle that would have gone further towards cementing his regime.

Thaksin did get the chance to declare a state of emergency, but his announcement was cut short by the counter-coup by Sonthi in a military power play.

Looking back, Thaksin could have bought time and saved his early doom by avoiding a series of blunders.

First, if he had announced a decision to take a break from politics, he could have still held power today by pulling strings behind the scenes.

The political tension in the country would have subsided significantly with such a move. A new election would have been held and one of his nominees - presumably Dr Somkid Jatusripitak - would take over as prime minister. Thaksin could have returned after a year or so of the political reform period because his Thai Rak Thai Party would surely win again under the new constitution and because his regime would have further entrenched itself in all aspects of the Thai political system.

Second, if he had paid taxes

on the Shin Corp deal he would have avoided the wrath of the Thai elite, intellectuals and the middle class. Thaksin's downfall can be attributed to the Bt73.3-billion tax-free transaction. As a national leader, he was not supposed to sell national concessions or assets to Temasek, considered a state enterprise of Singapore.

But his family executed the deal as if it were a standard business transaction.

Third, he had the chance to redeem himself by quickly donating his family's massive wealth to a social cause. If he had written cheques to give Bt10 billion to Bt20 billion to different foundations for the poor, he would have avoided the strong accusations against him and his family of enriching themselves at the expense of the country.

Several people advised him to make donations like Bill Gates, but Thaksin would not listen. He was stingy. If he had to give, he had to get in return.

Fourth, Thaksin went overboard with his arrogance. When he challenged the "person with charisma beyond the Constitution" as the one trying to undermine his government, all the Thai elite, intellectuals and middle class realised what he was finally up to. Thais could never forgive him for his remarks that bordered on contempt of the revered institution.

Finally, if he had been a good person who really put the interest of the country above everything, he would have become Thailand's greatest leader of modern times. He had everything: money, power, a strong mandate from the electorate, management ability and quick decision-making. Most importantly, he knew how to sell himself.
In the end, Thaksin messed everything up. Now, all doors for his return to Thailand have been closed. If he were to return, he would have to stand trial in a court of justice.

Thanong Khanthong
The Nation