Phuket Thailand

K2 · #1 18-05-2007, 18:02

Since its low season and its pretty boring, and Premier League is over, lets see what your thoughts (thots) are for where the Dow will end this year.

Currently 13,480.

I'll say 12,000.

Sirgezza · #2 18-05-2007, 18:10

I'd just say lower - but I don't know by how much.

SiamGecko · #3 18-05-2007, 18:18

What? No option for below 12,000?

Tough times ahead me thinks. Certainly no expert in this field, but everything just looks like a house of cards ready to crumble.

Seems that no-one worries about risk anymore, and likes to believe that the party can go on forever. Was reading last week somewhere that US citizens are spending in the region of $2 billion a day MORE than they are earning...how can that carry on??

Also, is not most of the activity in M&A's (UK), which history shows are 80% failures?

I think that in the next year or so, something will trigger the fall and from there it will be a freefall.

Don't be selling any gold would be a good strategy I think.

LivinLOS · #4 18-05-2007, 20:28

Measured in lower paying dollars ?? Or a basket of commodities ??

I am looking and cringing daily as I watch the shanghai comp.. 2%+ 2%+ daily.. up 18 days n 20.. 50% YTD in 130 last year.. You got to think theres an awful lot of sliding stops ready to kick in at the first whiff of anything not kosher, and lets face it chinese corporate transparency is perhaps not so kosher..

Then look at the run I missed out on that I could have had a sliding stop on !!!

Never mind.. My uranium call is / was pretty spectacular..

K2 · #5 18-05-2007, 20:40

Quote:

Originally Posted by LivinLOS

Measured in lower paying dollars ?? Or a basket of commodities ??

Well could have included the Dollar Index but would only have about 3 responses I reckon and not hard to guess where you think thats going.

BTW Shanghai A-shares trading at 43x earning ~ about where the Nasdaq got to in early 2000.

Setanta · #6 18-05-2007, 20:52

Optimists v pessimists.

Replacment sport for football.

May nearly over yet no " sell and go away".

I'm with the optimists on this one although volatility inevitable. 12,000 would not be the end of the world but my money is on 14,000.

Time will tell.

Coolhand · #7 18-05-2007, 21:09

Shanghai will not suffer major drop till after Beijing Olympics (Aug 2008).
Chines public are borrowing heavily to invest in equity. I can't see Beijing wanting to face the riots if the Shanghai market crashes, just before the world spectacle - but after it Tianamen all over again. Before Beijing was not able to support Shanghai market, now things are differemt.
Falling dollar and presidential cycle, I reckon to a big fall on the DJ very soon.

LivinLOS · #8 18-05-2007, 22:08

It dropped 9% the other day !!! talk about nerves (and the knock on spreading around the other global markets).. I dont see this current Chinese bubble lasting till Aug 2008.. No way..

Coolhand · #9 18-05-2007, 22:15

Others say Shanghai index will reach 10K - 4K now.
A cold Heineken at MTB says Shanghai index will be higher at opening ceremony of Beijing olympics than at close today (4030).

LivinLOS · #10 18-05-2007, 22:24

he he.. Thats a fair proposition..

tho 15 or so months to stay still wouldnt make a lot of people happy..