Phuket Thailand - Rugby Union

dizbuster · #1 31-12-2005, 04:36

A little while back, someone told me that the secret to betting on the handicaps in Rugby (Union as opposed to League) is back away teams that receive a start in "closely matched" games. I have done a little bit of analysis over the last few weeks and there does seem to be something in this bit of advice - 8 wins from 9.

If anyone wants this info, send me a PM and I'll send you what I have noticed, along with the stats etc and also what I reckon for this weekend's games.

Good luck
Diz

dizbuster · #2 08-01-2006, 21:27

I have analysed the stats some more and noticed a certain pattern, so that you can look for certain conditions to be in place before deciding whether there is a bet to be had or not.

Before this weekend, there had been 9 occasions when an away side was highlighted as being worth a bet (following thw above mentioned conditions), with them winning 7 times.

This weekend there were 2 more, Northampton beat Worcester yesterday to make it 8 wins out of 10 and currently Gloucester are 7-0 up at half time against Saracens, well on their way to making it 9 wins out of 11

Result : Saracens 9 Gloucester 19, therefore indeed making it 9 wins from 11.

steve@thaib · #3 13-01-2006, 05:18

I had a look at this last week and was so confused by the odds that I decided to look at porn instead!

Is there a bookies website that offers handicap bets on the rugby and is simple to follow?

dizbuster · #4 14-01-2006, 00:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve@thaib

I had a look at this last week and was so confused by the odds that I decided to look at porn instead!

Is there a bookies website that offers handicap bets on the rugby and is simple to follow?

Try www.oddschecker.com

1. Go webpage and select "Rugby Union" from the index on the left.
2. From the tabs, select the competition you want by clicking on it, i.e. this weekend sees Heineken Cup action.
3. For odds on individual matches, click "matches".
4. ...and then select the particular game you want.
5. ...and finally the market you want, i.e. what kind of bet you are looking to have. In our case, click on "Handicap Betting" and you'll see all the odds.

There's 2 teams for us to back tonight according to what I've already discussed with you Steve.

Good luck
Diz

dizbuster · #5 14-01-2006, 04:30

Quote:

Originally Posted by dizbuster

...There's 2 teams for us to back tonight according to what I've already discussed with you Steve...

Munster and Bath both won now making it 11 winners from 13 bets

Happy days !!

steve@thaib · #6 14-01-2006, 06:49

The Munster game was a bit of a joke; Castres turned out a shamefully weak side and got the flogging they deserve.

Bath seemed to win at a bit of a canter too, wonder why the can't play like that in the domestic games?

Anyway, am starting to get my head around this handicap thing.

Cheers Diz

dizbuster · #7 14-01-2006, 20:46

Rhat you say is true, but I'm not too concerned as long as I'm winning money

dizbuster · #8 24-01-2006, 17:12

That was my first losing weekend since adopting a "selection criteria" to the rugby handicaps, not bad 1 losing weekend from 6 !! Even then it was only a small loss, the Saracens bet not included as it didn't meet the selection critieria.

£11 staked on on each of Sale (lost on handicap result), Ulster (won), Cardiff (lost), Leinster (won), Bourgoin (lost) and Castres (lost) all @ 10/11 saw just £42 returned and therefore a loss of £24

Still, overall it's not too bad, if I had staked £11 @ 10/11 on all 24 that have met my criteria so far, I would have won with 16 of those bets and currently be £72 in profit, being 24 x £11 = £264 staked and 18 x £21 = £378 back from the bookies.

dizbuster · #9 29-01-2006, 03:29

Following the system meant 5 wins out of 5 this weekend

Worcester, London Irish, Sale, Leeds and Saracens although you had a close run with the last one and had to back Saracens with a bookmaker that gave a 6 point handicap start as they lost by 5 points and most bookies were only giving a 4 or 5 point start.

Still, that's 20 winners from 29 selections now... and a healthy profit

steve@thaib · #10 29-01-2006, 06:11

Good going Diz, what return would you get this weekend?

dizbuster · #11 29-01-2006, 20:56

Because the odds are usually 10/11 then I put on £11 to win £10 each time, therefore I won £40 and lost £11 which makes £29 profit. The one I lost on was Saracens again !!

I backed them with a bookie who gave a 4 point start but there were a couple giving a 6 point start - they lost by 5 points !!

It's also possible to do multiple bets, but I didn't do any this weekend as I'm starting to consider this system as a way of just having a steady supply of money coming in hopefully each weekend. Over the last 7 weekends just backing each "system selection" with £11 @ 10/11, then the following would have happened...

Dec 16/17/18 : £20 profit
Dec 26/26 : £40 profit
Dec31,Jan1/2 : £12 loss
Jan 7/8 : £20 profit
Jan 13/14/15 : £28 profit
Jan 20/12/22 : £24 loss
Jan 28/29 : £29 profit

This gives an overall profit of £101 from just backing each one individually, an average of £15 profit a week and if that can be sustained for a 20 week period, then that's £300 more in the LOS fund

dizbuster · #12 18-02-2006, 04:53

Friday 18/Feb

The Brumbies +8 won without the handicap so that's a nice start to the weekend.

Other bets for this weekend are...
Cheetahs +7
London Irish +8
Saracens +6
Gloucester +2

So far (including the Brumbies result) this little system has given 26 winners from 38 bets and if £11 was staked each time @ 10/11 the current profit would be £128.00

dizbuster · #13 19-02-2006, 00:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by dizbuster

Other bets for this weekend are...
Cheetahs +7
London Irish +8
Saracens +6
Gloucester +2

London Irish +8 Won 33-28 without the handicap (41-28 with the handicap)
Cheetahs +7 Won 27-26 (Won 34-26)
Saracens +6 Lost 58-17 (Lost 58-23)
Gloucester +2 Won 13-9 (Won 15-9)

steve@thaib · #14 19-02-2006, 05:33

Saracens got flogged today, watched it on telly and they were abject. If Leeds were not so far adrift, and Bristol not in freefall, I would back them for the drop.

That's twice they've let you down now Diz, time to stop backing Sarries methinks

dizbuster · #15 19-02-2006, 18:39

Quote:

Originally Posted by steve@thaib

Saracens got flogged today, watched it on telly and they were abject. If Leeds were not so far adrift, and Bristol not in freefall, I would back them for the drop.

That's twice they've let you down now Diz, time to stop backing Sarries methinks

Maybe....but with this little system it doesn't really matter if they lose as the percentage of winners is so high. Even if Gloucester lose today I still win. 5 bets of £11 is £55 staked and so far 3 have won which means a return of £63 and therefore a profit of £8. Should Gloucester win, then another £21 is returned from the bookie and that means £29 profit for this weekend.

If this continues, then come next season I will probably up my stake in the hope that the same "slow feed" of profit comes through every weekend but higher than for just £11. For example, add a "0" and make the stake £110 (to win £100) then we are talking very nice profits, but I would have to be convinced that this system works before I do that. The beauty of it is, that the bookies can't really do much apart from not quote, because if they lower the starts received by the away side, it means that the home side becomes a more attractive proposition