National

[mars]

So who's got the tips for Saturday

[IRISH JONNY]

Clan Royal !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ij

[dizbuster]

With the weather being good and the forecast for sunshine, it tends to suggest that the more fancied horses will do better. (Bad weather conditions and going tend to give the outsiders more of a chance).

Last year's winner HEDGEHUNTER is the one to beat but I don't think he will win again this year.

CLAN ROYAL has champion jockey AP McCoy aboard but he tends to suffer from the "champion's curse" and is usually a "nearly man" in this race.

JOE'S EDGE is currently 22/1 has been steadily attracting money over the last few days.

CORNISH REBEL is an old favourite of mine and will get the distance.

I think there a couple of things to use as a guide...

1. If you really want to try and back the winner, don't look at any horses priced over 20/1. As I've mentioned above, good conditions bring out the best in the more fancied horses, i.e. the favourites.

2. Look for a successful horse - look at the form figures of the last 4/5 races and try to avoid horses that have fallen (F), unseated rider (U) or pulled up (P) and this tends to suggest that they are either bad jumpers or else not quite 100% right (fit).

3. Keep to certain a range in the official ratings. The better horses have higher handicap ratings but also carry more weight. The higher the rating, the more weight the horse carries. This suggests that the top weighted horses are carrying too much and the lighter weighted horses are not good enough. Over the last 10 years, the rating of the winner have been...
2005 = 144 Hedgehunter
2004 = 139 Amberleigh House
2003 = 139 Monty's Psss
2002 = 136 Bindaree
2001 = 140 Red Marauder
2000 = 139 Papillon
1999 = 142 Bobbyjo
1998 = 147 Earth Summit
1997 = 149 Lord Gyllene
1996 = 152 Rough Quest
This gives a range of 136 to 152, which means that the current horses in that range are It TAKES TIME (152) down to IRIS ROYAL (136). If we narrow that a bit to 139 - 149 (because 152 and 136 are possible exceptions) then the horses in the range starts with EUROTREK 149 to INCA TRAIL 139.

At present there are too many to list and there's also the chance that some will drop out. I will add the names of all horses in the range on Friday night, once the final declarations have been made.

Finally, if you are not really interested in studying form etc and want to just put a small each way bet on a long priced horse, then you could do worse than pick PUNTAL who is about 100/1 at the moment and will have one of the best jockeys on board saturday afternoon in Barry Geraughty, who has won the race before (Monty's Pass 3 years ago).

Good luck

[dizbuster]

Originally Posted by dizbuster

...Finally, if you are not really interested in studying form etc and want to just put a small each way bet on a long priced horse, then you could do worse than pick PUNTAL who is about 100/1 at the moment and will have one of the best jockeys on board saturday afternoon in Barry Geraughty, who has won the race before (Monty's Pass 3 years ago).

Good luck

66/1 is now the best price for PUNTAL - it looks like somebody put enough on at 100/1 to move the price down

NB : PUNTAL's official rating is 142

[mars]

Thanks for the info Diz

See if I can pay for a day on the beer on Saturday

[ali]

innox at 12.1 is a great bet

[dizbuster]

OK, based on my comments above i.e. official rating between 136-152 and horses 20/1 or under only, the list looks like this...

Clan Royal
Numbersixvalverde
Jack High
Innox
Garvivonnian
Joes Edge

If we restrict the band to 139-149, which I believe is more likely to produce the winner, then it just leaves...

Clan Royal - he has won at Aintree twice before and run in 2 Grand Nationals, but I can't help feeling AP McCoy is jinxed in this race and whilst I can see him going close, I won't be backing him.

Jack High - won the BetFred Gold cup this time last year over 3m6f on good so should stay the 4m 4f trip but might find it hard going as he's never gone further than 3m 6f.

Innox - he was 7th last year and has won twice recently over long distances in softer going. The ground worries me a bit here.

Joes Edge - well known for running over longer trips and won last year's Scottish Grand National. This is my choice.

Good luck
Diz

[dizbuster]

Numbersixvalverde won at 11/1 with an official rating of 138 - just goes to show that you can strip down a field of 40 runners to a much smaller list. Had I not restricted the rating range to 139-149 then he would have been one of the horses left in

[Pentire]

Nearly Well don Diz...I enjoyed your feature on advising how to select the winner and I thought your theory was logical, especially these days when the National is no longer the lottery it once was.
This year the race looked to have as much class as the Gold Cup and so it should with £400 grand to the winner.

[dizbuster]

Originally Posted by Pentire

Nearly Well don Diz...I enjoyed your feature on advising how to select the winner and I thought your theory was logical, especially these days when the National is no longer the lottery it once was.
This year the race looked to have as much class as the Gold Cup and so it should with £400 grand to the winner.

The logic is there and from the original list of 6 in the range 136-152, the winner was in there but there you go.

It's much easier trying to pick a horse from 6 than 40

I had PUNTAL each way at 100/1, 80/1 and 66/1 plus I had him in an e/w double with WELLBEING who won at 7/1 in the first race of the afternoon I think my ticker has just about recovered and I hate to think what I would have been like had he managed to stay up there with the leaders at the end (finished 6th).

[Allybabba22]

Diz I think you need a few tips from my Ma, She only backs on the big races like the national and cheltenham, But always wins...

She bet on 3 horses, And 2 out of 3 came in... Numbersixvevalde and Hedgehunter...

Although only with small money on both, 2 euro each way as always...

Luckily for me, I put a tenner each way on both

[mars]

No win but had a good day out on the beer.

[IRISH JONNY]

Originally Posted by IRISH JONNY

Clan Royal !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ij

3RD....LOOKED LIKE WINNNING BUT HE GOT TEIRED IN THE LAST FURLONG.........
IJ